NFL Playoffs

The playoffs are again upon us. Let’s see if my playoff predicktions go any better than the regular season.

AFC Wild Card Round –
LA Chargers @ Houston Texans – Chargers are slightly fraudulent. They’re not very good. I think the Texans defense dominates, forces at least 4 Justin Herbert INT’s, maybe even block a FG and return it for a TD. 32-12, Texans.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens – All Ravens, Steelers’ offense isn’t going to be able to keep up. After a regular season matchup that saw nothing but FG’s, I’m predicting all touchdowns in this one. 28-14, Ravens.

Denver Broncos @ Buffalo Bills – Denver’s defense is strong, and the offense and their rookie QB is getting better at the right time. If they were playing anyone in the AFC other than the Bills in Buffalo, I’d be inclined to pick them, but I’m not picking against the Bills on their home turf in January. 27-23, Buffalo.

If this is how the games play out, it will be Texans at Chiefs and Ravens at Bills next week. Both very intriguing matchups.

NFL Wild Card Round –

Green Bay Packers @ Philadelphia Eagles – Eagles offense is up and down, but I have them winning this one, 26-21.

Washington Commanders @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Another tough one to pick, I’m finally going to go with a road team, Commanders over Buccaneers 31-27.

Minnesota Vikings vs LA Rams – The Vikings had a pretty magical regular season, but I think the magic ends. LA Rams find a way to break the Vikings hearts in the playoffs yet again, 23-21.

This would make for a divisional round that sees the LA Rams playing at the Detroit Lions, and the Washington Commanders playing at the Philadelphia Eagles next week.

All hail the Chiefs.

AFCW Week 8 Check-In

Very quick post to get something new up.

Chiefs – Still good, especially the defense in 2024. When they get some of their receivers back, they will be even better, which is bad news for the league as they’re sitting at 7-0 and are the defending champs.

Chargers – Up and down early on in 2024. Typical Chargers. I expect that to continue a tad, but ultimately playing better ball in the 2nd half of the season.

Broncos – Haven’t watched them much. Defense is good, offense is not. Should hover around .500 ball feels like.

Raiders – LolRaiders… they do finally appeared to be committed to the tank job in 2024. QB Gardner Minshew cementing these efforts with continued costly turnovers.

Football sucks.

Balls’ 2024 AFCW Season Predicktions

The 2024 NFL Season is upon us, and its time for Balls’ annual AFCW Predicktions. This is always met with plenty of bitching and moaning, but at the end of the season, I have a knack for hitting more than I miss. For example, when I’m being a homer and predicting more wins than Vegas or the mainstream media for the Raiders, the Raiders have hit 4 of the last 5 season win totals for the Raiders, when you guessed it, I predicted the Under. Ouch, that hurts. Or when I “hated” on the PFM Broncos for predicting they’d with the Super Bowl in the 2015 season despite PFM being dog shit, but the NFL needing his Swan Song season. I’ve picked the Chiefs to win the AFCW and more for like ever at this point, yet Poe’s bitchass still seems disrespected by my Chiefs predictions. Chargers? I’ve been pretty close, hard to be too far up and down from a team that is so incredibly mediocre, unless you’re retarded, the NFL Media, or Chargers fans who actually think these teams were anything special in the last forever.

So take whatever opinion you think the next 60 seconds of reading as it relates to my thoughts on your team’s season, ball it up, and throw it in the fucking trash, because yours truly has been way more hit than miss. So just sit this one out for once. Your Balls 2024 NFL/AFCW Predicktions!!

AFCW Standings Predicktions:
Kansas City Chiefs (13-4): They’re in year 6 of the (let’s get some tape on Patrick before we crown him) Mahomes Era… He’s still good. Reid’s good, defense is good. I do question a little of everything around them; but it ultimately is rooted in the idea of, can they possibly win 3 straight?? I’ll say no, moreso because of the odds. The odds they can lose a game vs a few contending AFC teams in playoffs or the NFC contender in the SB. The odds the receiving options can be good enough for Mahomes, the odds the OL/Defense can continue to be a strength surrounding him, and lets be honest, the odds the NFL will continue to allow them via officiating/etc. At some point, Chiefs ruling the NFL may not be great for business no matter how much you try to subsidize it (i.e. Mahomes, Kelce, Swifties, etc). Either way, Chiefs win the AFC West easily.

Las Vegas Raiders (9-8): Honestly, you could draw the next 3 teams out of a hat in my opinion. I think they’re all that close. I think the Raiders have the track record against their interdivision opponents, and the ability to matchup outside of it well enough to “earn” 2nd place in the AFCW, but outside of the playoffs and any semblance of contending for the NFL Championship. Pieces of their defense will shine, while others prove to be a liability at times. The receiving corps might be the best in the AFCW, but with Gardner Minshew at QB and an up and down OL/run game to support them, there will be some offensive dry spells.

Los Angeles Chargers (7-10): It’s hard to predict a losing season for a Jim Harbaugh led team. I have a lot of respect for the man. He was on the short list for replacing Jon Gruden for my Raiders in recent years. While I share a lot of the same respect for QB Justin Herbert, I’ve also long pointed out his shortfalls including rather uniquely circumstantial losses featuring late game giveaways, it’s hard for me to hitch my wagon to despite my respect for HC Harbaugh. There are simply too many questions surrounding him on offense, take your pick, OL, RB’s, TE’s, WR’s. There are also those underlying issues on a historically bad Brandon Staley’s Charger Defense.

Denver Broncos (6-11): It’s definitely not as hard to predict a losing season for a Denver Broncos team that has been losing for quite some time. Despite his ego, Sean Payton does not strike fear in the NFL/AFCW. He found that out in 2023. Their -56 Point Differential (which was an improvement from -72 in 2022) was still somehow good to finish 2nd in the AFCW at 8-9. The Broncos feature a rookie QB (whom I have grown to like in the offseason training process), with a mediocre offense around him, and a defense that I question as being the “strength” it’s being perceived as going into the season. This team has finished last in the AFCW 3 of the last 4 seasons. Only last season did they manage to crawl their way out despite the point differential. With the potential at QB, a few other pieces, and if HC Payton can regain success in the NFL, they have as good of chance as any to return to AFCW “Glory” (i.e. 2nd place behind the Chiefs).

Those season team predicktions of the AFCW were a bit doom and gloomy. My apologies, but I do think it’s another down year for the AFCW outside of the Chiefs winning and contending for another SB. Let’s focus on some high notes. As stated, Mahomes is still MVP favorite, Maxx Crosby should be firmly in the NFL Defensive POY race followed shortly by Khalil Mack, Joey Bosa, Chris Jones, etc. QB Bo Nix of Denver definitely has OROY potential, as well as TE Brock Bowers of the LV Raiders. There are plenty of reasons for AFC West fans to be excited for the 2o24 campaign, but I believe it should be focused around the building blocks for 3 of the 4 teams, with the Chiefs being the outlier as far as 2024 Playoff contention looking for the Super Bowl 3-Peat.

2024 NFL Predicktions:
AFC Playoff Teams (in seeded order): 1. Chiefs, 2. Texans, 3. Dolphins, 4. Ravens, 5. Bengals, 6. Jets, 7. Jaguars.

NFC Playoff Teams (in seeded order): 1. Lions, 2. Rams, 3. Eagles, 4. Falcons. 5. 49ers, 6. Packers, 7. Cowboys

AFC Championship: Texans over Jets, 27-23.
NFC Championship: Lions over Rams 31-20.
Super Bowl: Lions over Texans 30-24.

Individual Awards:
MVP – Jared Goff, Detroit Lions
Defensive POY – Maxx Crosby, Las Vegas Raiders
Offensive POY – Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins
Offensive ROY – Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears
Defensive ROY – Dallas Turner, Minnesota Vikings
Coach OTY – DeMeco Ryans, Houston Texans
Comeback Player of the Year – Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets.

NFL Training Camp

As NFL Training Camps start this week, can’t help but think this is the quietest summer I can remember in some time in the AFCW. Nothing significant on the trade block (unless you believe Davante Adams is on it, which I don’t), no holdouts appear imminent, minimal other drama.

No news is good news this time of year, as far as I’m concerned. I believe teams like the Broncos and Raiders could still make a couple key additions with the cap space they have and need for influx in talent at a couple positions. Otherwise, these teams appear focused with who they have in the building and ready to prep for their 2024 campaign.

AFC West Draft Overview

The NFL Draft has come and gone and it was very interesting. Giving out a draft grade for the draft is just nuts because these guys have not played a down in the league. With that said, for each team we are going to look at the following: Best Pick, Worse Pick, Diamond in the Rough and Best UDFA Signing.

This is completely speculative and we won’t know how good these guys are for a few years but here we go anyway.

DENVER BRONCOS
Best Pick: WR Troy Franklin
After trading Jerry Jeudy prior to the draft, the Broncos drafted Franklin. He is a slightly shorter version of Marques Colston and a perfect fit for Sean Payton’s offense. To make things even better, he played two years with Bo Nix and was his #1 receiver. Size, speed and a excellent route runner, he was a great pick.

Worse Pick: QB Bo Nix
This pick was forecasted and he is a great fit for Payton’s office. The reason it is the worse pick is where he was chosen (12th overall). After the crazy run on quarterbacks, the Broncos had to pull the trigger as they did not have a 2nd round pick. Time will tell with this one.

Diamond in the Rough: CB Kris Abrams-Draine
This guy will compete for the slot corner spot immediatley. He is a ball-hawking dog on the field. He reads quarterbacks as good as anyone in the draft. Getting this guy in the 5th round was one of the biggest steals of the draft.

Best UDFA Signing: OT Frank Crum
This guy had a great combine and was one of the best overall athletes for the OT position. He has a real shot at being a swing tackle as he has played both positions in college.

 

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Best Pick: WR Xavier Worthy
Here comes the fastest receiver to ever run at the combine. This guy was the perfect fit for the Chiefs offense. With Worthy and free agent signing Marquise Brown, the Chiefs now have two receivers that have 4.2 speed.

Worse Pick: OT Kingsley Suamataia
This pick was a round or so too early. He has great size and is a pretty good athlete but he has has only played 23 games over three years. He is an average pass protector at this point and is still raw. He is a boom or bust prospect.

Diamond in the Rough: OL Hunter Nourzad
This guy has played RT, LG and Center. That should tell you how versatile he is. He will push for playing time this year. He is very smart but he has some serious nasty to his game. Getting him in the 5th round is a real steal.

Best UDFA Signing: LB Curtis Jacobs
This guy is a pretty good athlete with decent production on a team with star players. He is a glue guy to any defense and the kind of guy that Steve Spagnuolo will get the most out of.

 

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS
Best Pick: TE Brock Bowers
This pick was a flat out steal. Was it a need, no, but he was the best player available. This guy should have been off the board but with the top six quarterbacks off the board, he was the guy. Bowers is a matchup nightmare and will be used all over the field. With OC Luke Getsy using 12 personnel (one back and two tight ends) only 23.5% of the time, expect that number to increase significantly.

Worse Pick: OT DJ Glaze
The Raiders had to address the offensive line and drafted JPJ in the second round to play guard. Glaze is a tackle that is great at pass blocking but average at best in the run game. He was drafted a bit too early. This guy will be a swing tackle but will have to develop quickly to make the team.

Diamond in the Rough: CB Decamerion Richardson
This guy was made to play in Patrick Graham’s defense. His size and speed has been the missing element for the defense to take the next step. The key with him will be how quickly he develops and learns the defensive scheme.

Best UDFA Signing: WR/KR Lideatrick Griffin
This guy will have a real shot at making the team as a returner. He is very elusive and has above average speed. In 2022 he was the all SEC Retuner. He is a decent slot receiver but retuning will be where he makes the team.

 

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
Best Pick: OT Joe Alt
Alt was arguably the best tackle in the draft. He will be an instant upgrade to the offensive line and help keep Justin Herbert upright. The only issue with this pick is what tackle position he will be playing. If he was drafted to play Left Tackle, this is the perfect pick. If he was drafted to play Right Tackle, there were better options as he never played RT in college at all.

Worse Pick: LB Junior Colson
Colson was one of if not the best linebackers in this years draft. He has great leadership skills, fantastic against the run and has a good chance of being the starting Middle Linebacker. His biggest draw backs are his trigger, coverage skills, but more importantly his speed or should that be his lack thereof. In a division with Travis Kelce, Michael Mayer and Brock Bowers, those concerns could come back to haunt him.

Diamond in the Rough: WR Brendon Rice
This is CRAZY!!! How does this guy slip to the 7th round. He is a good route runner, field stretcher (17.58 YPR) but a TD machine (12 TDs in 12 games). The Chargers made HUGE changes to their Wide Receiver room but somehow getting this guy is going to be a big help.

Best UDFA Signing: DB Akeem Dent
Dent is a true jack of all trades, master of none. He can play anywhere in the secondary with decent size (5’11”, 191) with 4.38 speed. He is the kind of chess piece that Jim Harbaugh loves to have on his team.

 

Well…..we are few months away from training camp and it can’t get here fast enough. So many questions to be answered and so many changes to be made. With that said, stand by for the stand by.

AFC West Outlook

Talk about an interesting free agency period so far, WOW! Trades, cuts and some great signings. This division is going to look a lot different this coming season. With the draft only a few weeks away, quality free agents still available and many moves to still be made, buckle up and get ready what promises to be a hell of a ride.

We are going to take a look at each team’s top signing, cut/trade, cap space, team needs and mock draft. Let’s get it….

Denver Broncos
Top Signing/s: C Sam Mustipher, S Brandon Jones, WR Josh Reynolds
Top Cuts: QB Russell Wilson, S Justin Simmons
Trades: WR Jerry Jeudy
Cap Space: $18,057,692
Team Needs: QB, CB, DT, Edge, OT
Mock Draft: QB Bo Nix
The Broncos have started to purge the roster to fit Sean Payton’s vision. The Wilson experiment is now over and Payton will be looking for the right fit for his offense. Enter Bo Nix. Quick release, check. Accurate all over the field, check. Timing Passer, check. Nix is taylormade for Payton’s offense. Expect the Broncos to move down in an attempt to pick up a 2nd rounder but if they can’t, Nix should still be the pick.

Las Vegas Raiders
Top Signing/s: RB Alexander Mattison, DT Christian Wilkins, QB Gardner Minshew
Top Cuts: QB Jimmy Garoppolo, WR Hunter Renfrow, DT Jerry Tillery
Trades: None
Cap Space: $25,276,353
Team Needs: QB, CB, OT, WR, IOL
Mock Draft: QB Michael Penix Jr.
The Raiders began the overhaul of their Quarterback room by releasing Garoppolo and Hoyer. They then signed Gardner Minshew. Enter Michael Penix Jr. He was made in a lab for the Raiders offense. He has pinpoint accuracy and throws the best deep ball in the draft. Adams and company will love this guy. Penix has a injury history but is healthy and is worth the risk.

Los Angeles Chargers
Top Signing/s: RB Gus Edwards, C Bradley Bozeman, TE Hayden Hurst
Top Cuts: WR Mike Williams, LB Eric Kendricks
Trades: Keenan Allen
Cap Space: $31,576,637
Team Needs: WR, CB, IOL, OT, RB
Mock Draft: WR Malik Nabers
The Chargers shocked the world by getting Jim Harbaugh to leave his alma mater and take over as the new Head Coach. They then released/traded their two top receivers and did not resign their starting tight end. Nabers is a true #1 receiver and a flatout dog. Expect him to be Herbert’s favorite target the minute he is drafted. He is half Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson and that is saying a lot.

Kansas City Chiefs
Top Signing/s: WR Hollywood Brown, TE Irv Smith Jr., P Matt Araiza
Top Cuts: WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling
Trades: CB L’Jarius Sneed
Cap Space: $23,901,508
Team Needs: WR, OT, CB, RB, IOL
Mock Draft: WR Xavier Worthy
The Chiefs won the whole thing, again (I just puked in my mouth). With that said, the offense was lacking one thing, receivers with speed. They signed Brown to help in that department but Worthy is different. He is not a track guy playing football, he is a football player that has world class speed. Giving Mahomes a guy that is actually faster than Hill seems unfair but it will be fun to watch.

(Cap Space Numbers via Spotrac)

This year will be one of the most interesting drafts within the division, moreso than we’ve seen in a long time because of the mystery and the unknown. New coaches, new General Mangers, new outlooks.

Strap in guys, this is going to be a fun one!!!

AFC West Cap Space and Team Needs

It has been a while and I have missed you guys but now it is time to get back to business and drop a hot rock. Let me start by saying congratulations to the Chiefs on their Superbowl win (FUCK THE CHIEFS!).

We are a day away from the Scouting Combine and a few weeks away from the start of Free Agency and the official start to the NFL year. Let’s look at the salary cap situation for each team and the team needs prior to the start of free agency. We will revisit team needs along with mock drafts as the season progresses. Without further ado, let’s do this, MAN!

SALARY CAP SPACE

Raiders  $42,936,109 (11th)

The Raiders are expected to be players and sign a few top end free agents.

 

Chiefs  $17,139,240 (19th)

The Chiefs may focus on signing their own stars in Jones and Sneed.

 

Broncos -$16,811,078 (28th)

The Broncos must make a decision at quarterback and free up cap space.

 

Charger -$25,607,797 (29th)

The Chargers must free up a lot of cap space and make some big changes.

 

Overall, this will be one of the most interesting free agency periods in a long time for the AFC West as there are teams at both spectrums of the salary cap.

(Figures via Over the Cap on Feb 26)

 

TEAM NEEDS

Raiders – QB, IOL, OT, CB, RB

The Raiders must find their franchise quarterback this year. Expect them to look into moving up in the draft to get their guy.

 

Chiefs – DT, WR, OT, CB, RB

If the Chiefs are able to resign DT Jones, wide receiver will be the top priority.

 

Broncos – QB, DT, TE, CB, Edge

If the Broncos move on from Russell, quarterback becomes the top priority.

 

Chargers – CB, RB, DT, TE, C

The Chargers have to fix their secondary and find a true number one cornerback.

 

What surprises will this off season bring…….only the Shadow knows. It should make for some great entertainment.

Balls’ Week 16 Predicktions

Buffalo Bills @ Los Angeles Chargers – I expect the Chargers team to rally behind the new interim HC, and try to keep this game close early, but eventually Josh Allen and the Bills wear down a much inferior Chargers squad, and cover 27-13.

New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos – I expect the Patriots the scheme up defensively to hold the Broncos offense in check. This game will be close late, but I do expect the Broncos to hold off the Patriots 20-17.

Las Vegas Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs – Hard to say which Raiders and Chiefs teams show up. This game has the potential to be very evenly matched with the Raiders having a chance to win, it also has potential to be a blowout with Mahomes lighting up the Raiders defense, even with a lackluster receiving corps. I do expect the result to be somewhere in the middle, with the Chiefs defense suffocating the Raiders offense at times, and win 27-17.

fuck the chiefs

Weekly Grade and Predictions

What in the hell is going on in the AFC West. One week you are going nuts and pulling out your hair, the next you are celebrating like its 1999. Let’s go…

GRADES
Chargers
Justin Herbert and the Chargers offense was spectacular putting up 421 yards of offense and 38 points only to see the defense completely blow. You want to talk about horrible, let’s see……..the Lions offense put up 41 points on 533 yards of offense with 200 yards coming on the ground. To understand how bad the defense was, the Lions punted only once in this game. This was an embarrassing showing for them as they wasted another outstanding performance from Herbert, Allen and company.
Grade: C- (Offense: A/Defense: F)

Raiders
The Raiders offense faced its hardest foe of the season going up against the Jets top 6 defense. HC Pierce simplified things and ran the ball with Josh Jacobs for 116 yards and controlled the clock. The Raiders scored the lone touchdown of the game in the 4th quarter on a great grab by rookie Michael Meyers. The defense held the Jets out of the end zone and only allowed 4 fieldgoals. This game was far from pretty but a win is a win.
Grade: B

Broncos
The Broncos pulled off the upset of the year to date. The defense was great in this game and created 4 turnovers while holding the Bills to 22 points. Russell Wilson was back to his old self completing a magical throw for a touchdown to Courtland Sutton. The Broncos were the laughing stocks of the league when Miami put 70 up on them. The last three weeks they have defeated the Packers, Chiefs and Bills proving they are not to be taken lightly and can beat anyone in the league.
Grade: A-

PREDICTIONS
Las Vegas Raiders at Miami Dolphins
This could get ugly and quick.
Dolphins 34 Raiders 13
Spread: +13.5 Raiders
Over/Under: 46.5

Los Angeles Chargers at Green Bay Packers
This is a must win for both teams.
Chargers 24 Packers 20
Spread: -3 Chargers
Over/Under: 43.5

Minnesota Vikings at Denver Broncos
This will be a defensive slobberknocker.
Broncos 20 Vikings 17
Spread: -2.5 Broncos
Over/Under: 42.5

Philadelphia Eagles at Kansas City Chiefs
A Superbowl rematch……strap in!
Eagles 24 Chiefs 20
Spread: -2.5 Chiefs
Over/Under: 45.5
Season: 18-14

This week is must see tv for the AFC West with the creme de la creme being in primetime on Monday night. Sit back and enjoy!