The time has come. Super Bowl LVI is set to kick off in just a few hours. Lets take a minute to appreciate the moment, that the big game will not feature the likes Tom Brady, the Patriots, the Chiefs, the 49ers, etc.
This game should be a good one, the Bengals will have to find a way to move the ball in the run and short passing game as their OL simply can not protect Joe Burrow, especially in this matchup. Can the Bengals defense answer the bell like they have done so many times this season vs a very balanced Rams offense.
Ultimately, I believe Rams are a more balanced football team and playmakers on defense will get enough stops to win Super Bowl LVI, 27-23 over the Bengals.
The Cincinatti Bengals travel to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday.
This is a rematch of a game that took place a few weeks ago, in which Joe Burrow and Jamarr Chase powered the Bengals to an upset victory over the Chiefs in Cincinatti.
I believe revenge will be on the mind of the Chiefs, as well as prior playoff experience which will prove to be too much for the Bengals, resulting in a 30-23 victory and a 3rd straight AFC Championship for the Chiefs.
JMC, Godfather, Joseph my Broseph…. Thank you. Thank you for submitting content here in MuddledState like only a few of us do showing the willingness to set aside personal shit to add a little something to this joint. My MS Appreciation posts ran short on time this preseason, but know yours and Nori’s contributions the last year have been much appreciated with us parting ways with a few writers. Just kidding, we didn’t part ways, but Robb/Dude/my bitchass have been either busy or just haven’t made it a priority.
I apologize for cutting your week 2 grades/predictions posts a little short, but this topic needed to be addressed.
Clelin Ferrell has not lived up to his draft position, #4 overall of the 2019 NFL draft as far as his tangible production. As far as his intangible production, that’s a little difficult to measure because its intangible (let me know if any of you drizzledicks need a definition). The Raiders draft strategy from 2019-2021 has been well documented, they valued the intangibles moreso than any other team in the league, to establish a winning culture. They took a few reaches drafting high character guys out of high class programs. This should not be news to anyone in this blog, but here we are 2+ years later still talking about the same shit. “Ermuhgerd, Clelin Ferrell was such a turrible pick.”
There has been so much Raiders slander regarding Mike Mayock, Clelin Ferrell and the #4 overall pick of the 2019 NFL draft, that I thought it was worth looking back on that draft at our respective teams’ draft classes to set the record straight. Seriously, look at this shit.
Raiders 2019 Draft Class 1st round pick, #4 overall – Clelin Ferrell – Bust. He’s man against the run, but you don’t draft those guys with a top 20 pick. 1st round pick, #24 overall – Josh Jacobs – Quality starter/Borderline stud. He looked like a stud in his rookie year, struggled with injury and playing behind a lackluster OL his 2nd year. 1st round pick, #27 overall – Jonathan Abram – Looking busty. Year 1 injured, year 2 garbage. Year 3 in the new defensive scheme will be big for his development. 2nd round pick, #40 overall – Trayvon Mullen – Up and down CB through 2 years, pretty high upside but has had some struggles too. The Raiders young secondary hard to judge given the poor defensive scheme and talent surrounding them. 4th round pick, #106 overall – Maxx Crosby – Stud. Not bonafide stud, but stud. 2020 he was coming off of rehab and injury, but his 2019 rookie campaign was huge, and he appears to be poised for a Pro Bowl season in 2021. 4th round pick, #129 overall – Isaiah Johnson – Garbage. 4th round pick, #137 overall – Foster Moreau – Solid #2 TE, would start for a dozen teams in the league. 5th round pick, #149 overall – Hunter Renfrow – GOAT. Beast. Absolute stud. 3rd and Renfrow. Fight me if you disagree with a goddamm 5th round pick. Other Picks – Quinton Bell – Garbage.
End Results – 3 starters ranging from mid-all pro upside, 1 starter by default with… uhhh…. upside (Abram), 1 backup but starter potential TE, a stud slot WR and whatever the fuck Clelin Ferrell is for a potential middle of the road to possibly potential AFC playoff team.
Chiefs 2019 Draft Class 2nd round pick, #56 overall – Mecole Hardman – He’s fast, he makes some big plays, but has the luxury of playing alongside guys like Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins and Pat Mahomes throwing him the ball. Would he do the same in Detroit? 2nd round pick, #63 overall – Juan Thornhill – Quality starter potential, mid-high upside. 3rd round pick, #82 overall – Khalen Saunders – Some upside as a rotational interior DL but a rather low ceiling. 6th round pick, #201 overall – Rashad Fenton – #4/5 CB, has had a few good moments, but otherwise meh. Other picks – Darwin Thompson, Nick Allegretti – Garbage, not worth noting.
End Results – 1 starter, 2 mid-high upside potential future starters, and a depth guy or two. They’re one of the most talented rosters in the league though, so they’re a bit of an anomaly in the AFCW.
Chargers 2019 Draft Class 1st round pick, #28 overall – Jerry Tillery – Lol. Had a marginal bounce back year in 2020 after an abysmal 2019. Pretty bust worthy at this point. 2nd round pick, #60 overall – Nasir Adderley – See Tillery description. 3rd round pick, #91 overall – Trey Pipkins – Complete bust from the moment it was announced. 4th round pick, #130 overall – Drue Tranquill – He’s a rotational LB. He’s not good. Other picks – Easton Stick, Emeke Ebule, Broughton – Garbage, actually Stick could be the little engine that could as a backup QB, but you’re fucked if he’s ever called to real action.
End Results – 2 starters (neither of which you’re overly excited about), a rotational LB and a bunch a garbage.
Broncos 2019 Draft Class 1st round pick, #20 overall – Noah Fant – Quality TE, with good upside. Might break into the top tier of TE’s, might not due to injuries/drops/etc. 2nd round pick, #41 overall – Dalton Risner – Looked every bit the part of a potential Pro Bowl LG coming out of college, hasn’t quite lived up to it. Still plenty of potential. 2nd round pick, #42 overall – Drew Lock – Looking busty, unless the starting QB shits the bed (which is a possibility) and Lock comes in and redeems himself. Otherwise, another big Elway QB miss. 3rd round pick, #71 overall – Dre’Mont Jones – Was a steal at the time. It’s still probably a steal. Looks every bit the part of a potential Pro Bowl DL. Other picks – Justin Hollins, Juwann Winfree – Not steals, they suck.
End Results – 3 mid-high upside starters, and Drew Lock whatever he is. The rest is trash.
So while you all keep talking about the #4 overall pick (I get it, he sucks), I’m looking at the big picture, and feeling juuuust fine.
That’s a WRAP on the 2021 NFL Preseason for the AFCW, which means its time for my final AFCW Predicktions. The teams got through the preseason relatively healthy, with only a few small injuries. The Raiders did end up a little thin at LB, so they elected to trade for Denzel Perryman one of PFF’s top 3 rated LB’s in 2020 to play for his old defensive coordinator Gus Bradley. They appeared to shore up that position prior to the start of the season.
The Chiefs enter the season as large favorites to win the AFCW, and I see no reason to disagree with that. They have been significantly better and more consistent the last couple years than the other teams, with only the Raiders providing them a bit of a challenge in 2020, splitting the series and looking very evenly matched throughout 8 quarters of football. The Raiders lacked the consistency and overall quality of defensive play to make a strong push down the stretch.
The Chargers and Broncos have numerous areas to improve in order to be contenders in the AFCW. The Chargers elected to revamp the coaching staff around their star young QB Justin Herbert. They brought in some quality offensive lineman to give the QB time, but many question marks remain, particularly on the defensive side of the ball and the lack of experience in the new coaching staff. Meanwhile, the Broncos elected to bring in QB Teddy Bridgewater in the hopes to gain more consistency and improve on their -16 turnover differential, which was last in the league. They addressed the offensive line and brought in some new corners to hopefully improve the pass defense in 2021.
My predicktions are as follows:
Chiefs – 13-4 – Barring injury, the Chiefs are still the class of the division by at least two or 3 games. Their season begins in January. Fuck them.
Raiders – 10-7 – The Raiders continue to steadily improve under Gruden and Mayock, with the offense leading the way. The defense finally shows signs of life after several years of disappointment under Paul Guenther. They finally get back to the playoffs, and Derek Carr gets his 1st playoff start in his 9th season. GOAT.
Chargers – 8-9 – Too many holes to fill in one offseason, too much uncertainty around the coaching staff and getting everyone on the same page. They will flash at times, but will lack consistency to make the playoffs in 2021. Justin Herbert shines, Keenan Allen has another strong campaign, but the rest of the pieces on O and all 3 levels on defense leave a bit to be desired.
Broncos – 6-11 – Another year, another new QB starting in Denver makes for another year of up and down offensive output, mostly down. Denver does have some weapons to throw to, I’m just not sure they have the QB situation to fully utilize them.
AFCW MVP – Patrick Mahomes, easily.
AFCW Offense POY – Travis Kelce, easily.
AFCW Defensive POY – Justin Simmons edges out Derwin James.
AFCW Offensive ROY – Not many to choose from here, but Javonte Williams should be in for a nice season only sharing carries with MGIII and Mike Boone out for the season. A few quality rookie OL throughout the division, but don’t typically get the shiny hardware.
AFCW Defensive ROY – Trevon Moehrig gets the INT’s necessary to edge out Surtain and Samuel, Jr.
Just a casual reminder that my Predicktions for the AFCW have been pretty spot on for a number of years. I do tend to miss on one team but only one, and outside of 2017, it is never the Raiders. So think of that as you proceed to tell me how wrong I am.
In the 2nd edition of Balls’ sappy MS Appreciation posts, I want to recognize to more OG’s. Two that were crucial in the process of migrating from ESPN to Facebook, to Shootgap, and finally to MuddledState. They might not be here much anymore, or even at all, but that doesn’t mean we can’t be grateful for them getting us here. They’re Broncos fans, but for a week or two maybe we can look past that.
TheDudeAbides and McNutty… thanks for all your past, present, and future contributions to MuddledState. You are good dudes and without your efforts, we might never made it away from the dreadful AFC West Facebook Fan Page (Yikes!).
“We are in the NFL offseason folks, the dog days of summer. While I do still fully expect the Denver Broncos to be in the news for the Aaron Rodgers trade sweepstakes in the coming weeks, it should be pretty uneventful in NFL news for the next several weeks otherwise.
I haven’t been contributing much, which is good for my personal life, but not so more for my alter ago, Balls from Muddled State. First of all, thank you everyone that keeps this place fun for the time we want to get away from our “normal lives.” This community has been such a good escape, a brotherhood of a bunch of odd ducks from all walks of life here in the US of A. We disagree sometimes, usually respectfully, but we all share many core values including family and football.
I am going to re-dedicate myself as a contributor to this joint for a couple months, not because my football team warrants it, but I think this community warrants it. I intend to post about some/most/maybe all of the folks that make this joint what it is, in appreciation posts.
The first contributor I’d like to thank, is one of the main life bloods that keeps MS going: Sir Robb Fett.
Robb, you might not even see this because your lame ass is never here anymore, but thank you. Without you, this community might have been dead in the water after the ESPN/Facebook era. You helped get us through not only those transitions, but then ShootGap and now MuddledState. That was over 10 years ago. Not a “thanks for getting us through the last 6 months, or a year,” this is a thank you for the last 10+ years of going the extra mile for a couple dozen random schmuck’s from the interwebs.
Your witty, passive aggressive, asshole-ish posts have undoubtedly ruffled many of feathers here, but your overall generosity has not gone unnoticed. Now, put your personal life priorities aside, and come home…. to MuddledState. We need you here, I need you on Fortnite, Lord needs you in the bedroom. Come back to us.
Some teams fared better than others in the 2019 NFL Draft, and that is especially the case in the AFC West. Now, that is to be expected when a team like the Raiders with needs all over the place head into the draft with 4 top 35 picks, and end up making 9 selections overall while a team like the Chiefs head into the draft with fewer picks including zero 1st round picks, and needs at few positions.
Lets start wit the Los Angeles Chargers.
Needs entering draft in order: DT, OG, OT, ILB, S, WR Draft Selections: DT Jerry Tillery, S Nasir Adderley, OT Trey Pipkins, LB Drue Tranquill, QB Easton Stick, DE Emeke Egbule, DT Cortez Broughton
Best Pick: S Nasir Adderley – DT was a bigger need, and they got a good one in round 1 with Jerry Tillery so this was hard, but I think the pick of Nasir Adderley in Rd 2 was the Chargers’ best pick. I just love his game, and the versatility he bring to an already pretty loaded secondary. It will be a tall task to throw on the Chargers in 2020.
Worst Pick: OT Trey Pipkins – Listen, I’m as big of supporter as any in drafting a bit a project in that 3 rd range, but Pipkins could be had so much later. This was a pretty awful use of a good resource.
Under the Radar Pick: QB Easton Stick – Another player that was picked a little earler than most expected, but I loved it. Having a good backup QB is underrated in this league, even when you have an ironman in Philip Rivers. Stick doesn’t present a lot of upside in terms of a future starter, so I think you could do a lot worse than using a 5th rd pick on a career backup that can come in and pull out gritty wins when called upon for the next 8-10 years.
Overall: This was a great draft for the Chargers at the top, but fizzled soon after. Stick was a sneaky good pick in the 5th, but other than that after Adderley in round 2 I don’t see much upside in terms of future starter in the bunch. The 2 picks at the top are good enough to earn a solid grade.
1st Pick – Raiders – Balls – QB Kyler Murray – Jon Gruden loves Kyler Murray, that much we know. How much would it take to move up to #1 to draft him? Potentially, the #4 and #27 picks in the 1st round, as well as their 2nd round pick #35 overall. They pull the trigger on this, and hope to get some draft capital back by making Derek Carr available for trade.
The Raiders have made worse #1 overall picks…
2nd Pick – 49ers – Dude – EDGE Nick Bosa – The 49ers don’t have a bad defense they just have a terrible turnover margin with a league worst -25, while only creating 7 turnovers. They need playmakers and Bosa fits that bill.
3rd Pick – Jets – McNutty – EDGE Josh Allen – Easiest pick in the draft. Team need meets BPA.
4th Pick – Cardinals – Balls – DL Quinnen Williams – The Cardinals need help up and down the squad. They take the one of the best players in the draft after trading out of the #1 pick.
5th Pick – Buccaneers – Dude – CB Greedy Williams – They could go pass rusher here but with Grimes not expected back and not having any other viable #1 CB Greedy Williams is shut down corner ready for the pass happy NFC S.
6th Pick – Giants – McNutty – QB Dwayne Haskins – The time to replace Eli is now. Giants choose a highly productive one year starter. Haskins’ live arm and consistent accuracy make him Pat Shurmur’s first pick.
7th Pick – Jaguars – Balls – OT Jawaan Taylor – Assuming the Jaguars address the QB position in free agency, they badly need to protect whoever they get. Jawaan Taylor is a really, really good OT prospect.
8th Pick – Lions – Dude – EDGE Montez Sweat – With Ansah hitting the market the Lions need pass rush help. Montez is fast as fuck and the Lions won’t Sweat his poor technique. The combine and senior bowl solidify his top 10 placement.
9th Pick – Bills – McNutty – EDGE Rashaan Gary – One of the more interesting prospects in the draft goes to Buffalo. DT probably isn’t the Bills’ biggest concern, but Gary’s potential is worth the gamble.
10th Pick – Broncos – Balls – QB Drew Lock – I like Lock, John Elway is rumored to like Lock. The Broncos need a long term plan at QB, and Lock falls in their lap.
“Go out there and grind.”
11th Pick – Bengals – Dude – LB Devin White – The Bengals breathe a sigh of relief that Denver didn’t take their player. Devin White is a 3 down ILB that will captain a defense for his career.
12th Pick – Packers – McNutty – OL Jonah Williams – Athletic and experienced, Williams is the best lineman on the board. The Packers get a smart, versatile Day 1 starter.
13th Pick – Dolphins – Balls – DL Ed Oliver – Similar to the Cardinals, the Dolphins need help everywhere. Just take whoever falls to you, in this case Ed Oliver.
14th Pick – Falcons – Dude – DL Christian Wilkins – The Falcons are terrible against the run. I thought about Bush here but Wilkins steps in immediately next to franchise tagged Grady Jarrett to improve this issue.
15th Pick – Redskins – McNutty – QB Daniel Jones – This pick was made before the Redskins traded for Case Keenum. I’m not sure that Keenum coming to town changes this pick. Not a Jones fan, but I think a team overdrafts him.
16th Pick – Panthers – Balls – WR DK Metcalf – Pairing a receiver with the size, speed, and catch radius as DK Metcalf with what the Panthers already have going on in their offense just seems too good to pass up.
17th Pick – Browns – Dude – WR Marquise Brown – Baker Mayfield + Hollywood Brown = Oklahoma magic. That same magic should transfer to the NFL while giving Cleveland a real X Factor in their air raid style offense.
(McNutty note on the 17th pick: I could tell Dude had a boner as he wrote that. Gross.)
18th Pick – Chiefs – McNutty – CB Byron Murphy – Fat Andy trades up to take arguably the best cover CB in the draft. Murphy is a tough and aggressive, and KC will need all the help they can get in the passing game.
19th Pick – Titans – Balls – TE TJ Hockensen – The Titans were a tough team to mock, as they could go several different ways with this pick. I have them selecting TE TJ Hockensen since Delanie Walker is getting up there in age.
20th Pick – Steelers – Dude – LB Devin Bush – Not to be heartless, but I think it’s safe to say that while he is a model of positivity, Shazier isn’t coming back. Bush gives the Steelers defense an identity again and can captain that defense for years to come.
21st Pick – Seahawks – McNutty – EDGE Clelin Ferrell – The talented DE from Clemson falls to my favorite team Uncle Pete’s squad. Ferrell played on a DL filled with NFL prospects, but he was productive and displayed ability against the run and pass.
22nd Pick – Ravens – Balls – WR N’Keal Harry – This is a popular selection around the mock draft community, and it’s easy to see why. WR N’Keal Harry is a do it all receiver, who should be a huge target for 2nd year QB Lamar Jackson.
23rd Pick – Texans – Dude – OT Andre Dillard – O’Brien saw more sacks last season than Sandusky did in his career at Penn State. Watson has proven he needs more time and Dillard is a plug and play OT that can provide that.
24th Pick – Raiders – McNutty – EDGE Brian Burns – Fun fact: Brian is the great grandson of Montgomery Burns! I really like Burns’ potential as an edge rusher. His first step is a killer and he is a top tier athlete, but he’s a bit of a one-trick pony for now.
Stretch needs to hit the gym.
25th Pick – Eagles – Balls – RB Josh Jacobs – The Eagles have some talent at the running back position, by way of a RBC approach. However, I like the idea of getting a 3 down back and playmaker in Josh Jacobs and flipping their existing RB’s for picks.
26th Pick – Colts – Dude – WR Perris Campbell – Why not give Luck more weapons? Campbell’s combine earned him a spot in the first round with his workout.
27th Pick – Cardinals – McNutty – OG Cody Ford – I was doing the draft by dictating texts to Siri. Ford was the only one I could think of for the Cards. Meh.
28th Pick – Chargers – Balls – DT Dexter Lawrence – Chargers need help on the interior defensive line, badly. Dexter Lawrence is a top 15 player in this draft, and fell right into their lap.
29th Pick – Vikings – Dude – C Garrett Bradbury – The middle of the Vikings OL is terrible and Elflein took major steps back after his rookie year. Bradbury is an instant upgrade.
30th Pick – Saints – McNutty – TE Noah Fant – This almost isn’t fair giving Sean Payton an athlete like this to exploit matchups. Madden-type offense.
31st Pick – Rams – Balls – CB Trayvon Mullen – With both Aqib Talib and Marcus Peters scheduled to hit free agency in 2020, Rams elect to draft Trayvon Mullen in hopes he can fill a void at the CB position.
32nd Pick – Patriots – Dude – TE Irv Smith, Jr. – Gronkowski is almost done. And the Patriots are much more dynamic with two capable TEs. Smith is a solid blocking TE who is still athletic enough to stretch the field. He could be the Gronkowski of the future.
Ahhhh… nothing says offseason quite like a little sense of optimism from a fanbase of what should be pretty commonly known as one of the most incompetent franchises in all of sports… but here we are. Raiders are entering year 2 of the Jon Gruden 2.0 era, the slate has been wiped clean and Gruden has brought in friend and draft guru Mike Mayock to help build this team up the way he’d like it.
I’d like to say I know what direction Gruden and Mayock could go this offseason with over $70 Million in cap space, 10 draft picks with 4 coming in the first 35 picks, and many, many needs, but nobody really has a clue at this rate. So let’s not act like anyone really knows what the Raiders could do, I’m just going to focus on what the Raiders should do in my humble opinion.
Re-Sign – Jared Cook, Marshawn Lynch
Free Agent Targets
EDGE – Ziggy Ansah, Trey Flowers, Za’Darius Smith, Cameron Wake
MLB/WLB/SLB – Jordan Hicks, Kwon Alexander, Mark Barron, Anthony Barr, Shaq Barrett
WR – Tyrell Williams, John Brown, Golden Tate
S – There’s so many good ones, just get one.
At the end of free agency, I think the Raiders should come away with a starting S, LB, and either DE, DT or WR. They can fill out some depth with other additions, but these should be priorities. Now on to the draft.
The Raiders will approach the draft one of two ways. One with Derek Carr being their QB of the future, and one without. Lets start with the one without since that is pretty cut and dry. They will either trade enough compensation to move up to 1.1, or sit tight and see if Murray, Haskins or Lock fall to them at 1.4. Then they fill in roster needs with whatever picks they have left.
Now for the draft approach assuming they really do believe Derek Carr is the franchise QB. While the Raiders can certainly add some talent in free agency, I think they should still attack this with a BPA approach since there is so little talent to speak of. So here is a mock draft to see what that may look like through 5 rounds.
There is a million ways to go about this offseason with all the resources the Raiders have and the lack of foundational talent that is on the roster as of now, so it is anyone’s guess. This is just my opinion. Don’t trade for Antonio Brown, don’t sign Le’veon Bell unless either comes fairly reasonable. Find a few upper end starters in free agency with front loaded deals similar to what we did a few years back, and build this thing the right way by utilizing the draft capital we have in what appears to be a very high quality draft class.
Well, cuts will start rolling in as early as tomorrow morning, and I’d have a few names I would recommend ASAP. Lets try to narrow down the Oakland Raiders roster to the final 53 players. Not an easy chore, as there is plenty to debate regarding the quality of the top of this roster, but the bottom of the roster is full of tough decisions to be made.
Quarterbacks:
Derek Carr, Connor Cook, EJ Manuel
I hate carrying 1 bad backup QB, and especially hate carrying 2, but there is just enough questions regarding the position in it’s entirety, that I think the Raiders carry all 3.
Running Back/Fullback:
Marshawn Lynch, Keith Smith, Doug Martin, Jalen Richard
A bit of a surprise, but no DeAndre Washington and no Chris Warren. Washington gets cut given the new competition in the room and after a lackluster showing in week 3-4 of preseason the Raiders hope to stash Warren on the practice squad.
One of the tougher decisions to make, Holton vs. Marcell Ateman. Ateman to the practice squad.
Tight Ends
Jared Cook, Lee Smith, Derek Carrier
Easiest decision on the roster, Paul Butler to the practice squad.
Offensive Linemen
Kolton Miller, Kelechi Osemele, Rodney Hudson, Gabe Jackson, Donald Penn, Jon Feliciano, Brandon Parker, David Sharpe, and Ian Silberman.
Another tough call, but I think Silberman, Felciano, and Sharpe provide the versatility to cut a Jordan Simmons.
Defensive Linemen
Bruce Irvin, Justin Ellis, PJ Hall, Maurice Hurst, Arden Key, Mario Edwards Jr, Tank Carradine, Fadol Brown, and Shilique Calhoun.
Linebackers:
Tahir Whitehead, Marquel Lee, Derrick Johnson, Nicholas Morrow, and Emmanuel Lamur.
Short on linebackers, but I think a combination of versatility and this being a pass happy league makes getting by with a couple fewer linebackers possible.
Cornerbacks:
Rashaan Melvin, Gareon Conley, Daryl Worley, Nick Nelson, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, and Leon Hall.
Going into the Raiders final preseason game I hated the idea of cutting Antonio Hamilton in favor of 56 year old Leon Hall. However, Hamilton go beat just enough tonight that I’ve come around to the idea of keeping another coach in the DB room in Hall.
Safeties:
Karl Joseph, Marcus Gilchrist, Reggie Nelson, Erik Harris, and Shalom Luani
11 defensive backs, that’s quite a few, but I think that is by design. I elected to cut the RB/OL room a little short to try to give the secondary room some options.
Special Teams:
K Eddie Piniero, P Johnny Townsend, LS Andrew Depaola
