TheDude’s Lines

We needed a new article. That last one was getting stale.  Here’s my betting lines for the weeks games.  Mind you I have no real knowledge of betting games and have not looked at any of the lines.  But whatever.

KC vs DEN

Line: KC -14

O/U: 66

Tons of offense.  KC wins huge in a high scoring game (for KC they may get 50 of the 66 points)

CLE vs OAK

Line: Even

O/U: 30

Baker struggles from nerves in his first real start that he has time to think about.  Cleveland’s defense is enough to keep Carr and Co in check.  I’d give the line -7 for Cleveland if they were at home but OAK has home dirt advantage.

SF vs LAC

Line: LAC -7

O/U: 52

Neither team really living up to preseason hype. SF will be with a backup QB in Beat Hard who is an INT machine.  But both defenses give up points.  I’d favor more for LAC but do they really have a home field advantage?

The Saga of Jon Gruden in Oakland

Everyone here knows how much I loathe Jon Gruden, although getting us a Lombardi would earn him forgiveness of course. Him coming back for a 2nd go around as our coach was not a happy development for me, and I feel like I owe my fellow Raider Nation residents an explanation. Now I realize that all you non-Raider fans and hell even most Raider fans probably don’t really care, but fuck you I am telling the story anyway.

 

The scene is the end of the 1996 NFL season, one that saw the Raiders finish up a disappointing 2nd season back in Oakland at 7-9, which would cost coach Mike White his job and spell the end of Jeff Hostetler’s time with the Raiders. The ensuing search for the next coach would include a certain young up and coming OC from Philly, and by all accounts made quite an impression on Al Davis during his interview.. But ultimately the job went to Joe Bugel, who promised “multiple Super Bowls” at his introductory press conference. Well, that did not work out so well for him or the team as he lasted one miserable season, finishing 4-12 despite some gaudy stats from QB Jeff George. The lowlight came in week 2, a MNF game in Oakland against the Chiefs where the Raiders led for pretty much the entire game and were up by 5 in the waning seconds when Terry McDaniel somehow let Andre Rison get behind him for a long TD with 3 seconds left to lose. After the game Bugel did not even come out to face the press, leaving McDaniel to cover for his gutless coach. It was all downhill from there.

 

So now the next search gets underway with most correctly assuming Gruden would get the job, Al hired him even after his agent opened the interview with the following statement – “This team is not one win from the Super Bowl it is 4 games away from zero wins”, something Al normally would not tolerate under any circumstances. Despite a DUI in Pleasanton during October of that year the worship starts when he somehow got the team to 7-3 with Donald Hollas at QB after George was injured early in the season, but they lost 5 of their final 6 games to finish 8-8. Then Gruden talks Al into signing a journeyman QB in Rich Gannon, and another 8-8 season follows. But the direction of the team was changing, punctuated by a week 17 win at Arrowhead where the Raiders wiped out an early 17-0 deficit and knocked the Chiefs out of the playoffs. 2000 saw a return to glory, the Raiders finish 12-4, win the AFC West to return to the playoffs for the first time in 7 tears. A 27-0 romp over Miami in the divisional round had everyone talking Super Bowl, but a turbulent loss to the Ravens in the AFC title game ended that dream. But optimism remained high, and in May of 2001 Gruden somehow earns a spot in People magazine’s 50 most beautiful people. But even after a very successful start to the 2001 season the tide was once again changing, Gruden’s name becoming linked to every major job opening in the college ranks, most notably Notre Dame where Gruden himself has to address the constant rumors. The team wins the AFC West for the 2nd year in a row but loses their last 3 games to cost them a bye. They beat the Jets in the Wild Card round but then they go to Foxboro and lose a certain infamous snow game there. In the aftermath of that bitter moment that his agent calls a press conference to announce that despite Gruden saying many times he wants to coach the Raiders for years he is going to leave after the 2002 season when his contract expired, the agent making another ballsy statement saying that there was zero percent chance he coaches the Raiders beyond next year, this is not a leverage play here. The fact that all this is aired publicly was bad enough, but to do this only days after the most bitter moment in franchise history was especially galling. So Al does the only thing he can, trading him to TB for 2 1st rounders, 2 2nd rounders and $8M in cash. He proceeds to go 12-4 and then beating the Raiders in the Super Bowl, a moment I am sure he savors to this day. But after that he is very mediocre, only making the playoffs twice in the next 6 years, losing his 1st game both times. We all know his antics in the MNF booth, and nothing he did inspired any confidence that he was ready to lead anyone back to glory. What will happen? Guess we’ll see.

Raiders Projected 53

Well, cuts will start rolling in as early as tomorrow morning, and I’d have a few names I would recommend ASAP. Lets try to narrow down the Oakland Raiders roster to the final 53 players. Not an easy chore, as there is plenty to debate regarding the quality of the top of this roster, but the bottom of the roster is full of tough decisions to be made.

Quarterbacks:

Derek Carr, Connor Cook, EJ Manuel

I hate carrying 1 bad backup QB, and especially hate carrying 2, but there is just enough questions regarding the position in it’s entirety, that I think the Raiders carry all 3.

Running Back/Fullback:

Marshawn Lynch, Keith Smith, Doug Martin, Jalen Richard

A bit of a surprise, but no DeAndre Washington and no Chris Warren. Washington gets cut given the new competition in the room and after a lackluster showing in week 3-4 of preseason the Raiders hope to stash Warren on the practice squad.

Wide Receivers:

Amari Cooper, Jordy Nelson, Martavis Bryant, Seth Roberts, Dwayne Harris, Johnny Holton

One of the tougher decisions to make, Holton vs. Marcell Ateman. Ateman to the practice squad.

Tight Ends

Jared Cook, Lee Smith, Derek Carrier

Easiest decision on the roster, Paul Butler to the practice squad.

Offensive Linemen

Kolton Miller, Kelechi Osemele, Rodney Hudson, Gabe Jackson, Donald Penn, Jon Feliciano, Brandon Parker, David Sharpe, and Ian Silberman.

Another tough call, but I think Silberman, Felciano, and Sharpe provide the versatility to cut a Jordan Simmons.

Defensive Linemen

Bruce Irvin, Justin Ellis, PJ Hall, Maurice Hurst, Arden Key, Mario Edwards Jr, Tank Carradine, Fadol Brown, and Shilique Calhoun.

Linebackers:

Tahir Whitehead, Marquel Lee, Derrick Johnson, Nicholas Morrow, and Emmanuel Lamur.

Short on linebackers, but I think a combination of versatility and this being a pass happy league makes getting by with a couple fewer linebackers possible.

Cornerbacks:

Rashaan Melvin, Gareon Conley, Daryl Worley, Nick Nelson, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, and Leon Hall.

Going into the Raiders final preseason game I hated the idea of cutting Antonio Hamilton in favor of 56 year old Leon Hall. However, Hamilton go beat just enough tonight that I’ve come around to the idea of keeping another coach in the DB room in Hall.

Safeties:

Karl Joseph, Marcus Gilchrist, Reggie Nelson, Erik Harris, and Shalom Luani

11 defensive backs, that’s quite a few, but I think that is by design. I elected to cut the RB/OL room a little short to try to give the secondary room some options.

Special Teams:

K Eddie Piniero, P Johnny Townsend, LS Andrew Depaola

Broncos Projected 53

Offense

QBs

1. Case Keenum

2. $wag Kelly

3. Vet to be named later. (Maybe Derek Anderson?)

There is no chance Paxton makes this team.  At this point in time there is no reason to keep him around and pretend he helps the roster.   A veteran QB for this team will be needed, even if Kelly is the #2, to provide stability and also to help mold Kelly into a solid professional.  Derek Anderson would be awesome for this.

RBs

1. Royce Freeman

2. Devontae Booker

3. Phillip Lindsay

4. Andy Janovich (FB)

Freeman obviously earned the starting job this preseason, and Lindsay has solidified his roster spot and his role with his play as a 3rd down back and as a returner. Janovich is a stud FB and it appears Musgrave has plans for utilizing the position. Booker makes the team just because he has experience and no one else has done anything to push for his job.

WRs

1. Emmanuel Sanders

2. Demaryius Thomas

3. Courtland Sutton

4.  DaeSean Hamilton

5. Tim Patrick

6. River Cracraft/ John Diarse

The top 4 are obvious outside of the fact that Sanders seems to be the new #1 WR for Keenum.   But Sanders Thomas Sutton and Hamilton could have been put down in ink on the depth chart AUG 1.  Tim Patrick is the next guy who has made plays and closely resembles the style of WR Denver prefers being tall long and fast.  The #6 WR could be cut altogether making room for another RB, but I think they keep 6.  Diarse is the better WR but Cracraft has benefits in the return game and could be kept in case of injury to one of the returners.

TEs

1. Jeff Heuerman

2. Jake Butt

3.  Austin Traylor

This also could be a spot where Denver only keeps 2 opposed to 3 but Musgrave likes playing from big sets and Traylor is a better blocking TE than Butt.  Rookie Troy Fumagalli will be sent to IR to red shirt a season like Butt did last year.

OL

1. Garrett Bolles

2.  Ron Leary

3.  Matt Paradis

4.  Connor McGovern

5. Jared Veldheer

6. Max Garcia

7. Billy Turner

8. Sam Jones

9. Cyrus Kouandjio

Turner can play either OT or OG, and has consistently outplayed Kouandjio this preseason.   Both Jones and Garcia can play either OG or C.  Kouandjio provides depth.

Defense

DL

1. Domata Peko

2. Derek Wolfe

3. Adam Gotsis

4.  Shelby Harris

5. DeMarcus Walker

6. Zach Kerr

This unit is finally deep enough again to rotate players out the way Bill Kollar likes to run his lines.   Harris has shown he could be pushing for a starting role and Walker and Gotsis have grown leaps and bounds.  (Thanks to Walker being in his correct position).

ILBs

1. Todd Davis

2. Brandon Marshall

3. Josey Jewell

4. Zaire Anderson

5. Alexander Johnson

Jewell has been a beast against the run and should get plenty of playing time this year. He’s definitely not a man cover guy but can play zone and has a nose for the ball.  Anderson has experience and has outplayed the other backups while Johnson just got paid in a bidding war for Denver to sign him. He won’t clear waivers so the raw monster of an ILB makes the 53.

OLBs

1. Von Miller

2. Bradley Chubb

3.  Shane Ray

4. Shaquil Barrett

No surprises here either.  This could have been inked in on the depth as soon as Shane Ray was cleared to participate.

CBs

1. Chris Harris Jr

2. Bradley Roby

3. Trumaine Brock

4. Adam Jones

5. Isaac Yiadom

 

Yiadom has been beaten regularly in preseason due to his poor mechanics.  Who better to teach the youngster than Adam Jones who has a great relationship with head coach Vance Joseph.

FS/SS

1. Darian Stewart

2. Justin Simmons

3. Will Parks

4. Su’a Cravens

5.  Dymonte Thomas

Both Stewart and Simmons can play either position so effectively Parks backs up both of them. He’ll play FS and the other will move to the SS position.  Both Cravens and Thomas will cover TEs and RBs.  Cravens makes this team without playing in preseason but I wouldn’t be surprised if Dymonte takes his job due to the fact that he is finally healthy and playing at a high level.

STs

PK Brandon McManus

P Marquette King

LS Casey Kreiter

PR Adam Jones

KR Phillip Lindsay

Practice Squad

Jeff Holland

JJ Dielman

John Diarse/ River Cracraft

Dave Williams

Keyshawn Bierria

CJ Smith

Mark Chapman

3 players from other teams


Notable Cuts

Brendan Langley – While he may be a PS candidate the guy just can’t hack.

Paxton Lynch-  Lol.

DeAngelo Henderson – the shifty back is just underdeveloped and is lost in a cramped backfield.  He will get picked up by another team.

Preseason Overreactions and Underreactions

The worst week of preseason games is in the books.  We will be looking at some reactions from the blog and see what weight they carry.   Homer and hater alike let’s dig into some theories.

Denver Broncos:

Overreaction: Chad Kelly Flashes Greatness

Did Kelly look good?  I’ll say maybe.  He looked better by contrast.  At a position where confidence is as important as it is to a professional golder, Kelly flashed plenty of it. His arm has some pop in it and he showed decent mobility.

But his first TD pass was on a blown coverage. His second TD pass was better but he was helped by an athletic Lindsay finding the end zone.  His stat line was 14/21 with 2 TDs and an INT (and almost threw a second INT), against 3rd stringers.  By comparison Trevor Siemian was 11/17 with 2 TDs and an INT. Both are 7th rd draft picks and both threw their first TD on a badly blown coverage.

Underreaction:  Paxton Lynch should be 3rd string

This guy needs to be off the team and out of the league.  Rumors are swirling that Paxton thinks he’s already made this team and isn’t working to get better. He’s a detriment to WRs and RBs trying to make this team. As of right now he’s 3rd string, but he needs to be gone.

Oakland Raiders

Overreaction: PJ Hall will have great career with Oakland

Yes PJ Hall had a sack on his first play in the game.  Hooray for PJ.  But he also played in a third of all the defensive plays in this game.  PJ Hall’s stat line at the end of the game?  1 sack.

I understand the position he plays and I understand the lack of stats.  But let’s pump the breaks a little and see how things play out.  We can also add Mo Hurst to this.  He had a 0 stat line.

These guys could both turn out to be dynamic, but seeing all the articles about how great the start was to their careers has been, I’d expect more than one sack between two stat lines.

Underreaction:  Chris Warren looked good

Yes the former Texas RB did look good.  But there’s more to it.   For a big man the guy can move, he flashes a punishing running style that not many backs can actually maintain at this level.  He could make the muscle hamster irrelevant, and a one-two punch of Lynch and Warren could really wear down defenses, giving Carr a little more breathing room.

LA Chargers

Overreaction:  Trade Cardale Jones and Geno Smith

While neither guy really played well and neither guy actually fits the scheme that the Chargers run, its a little early for this. Geno is set to be a career backup at this point in his career and will probably end up with the #2 job, Cardale Jones has only played in one game as a pro with a terrible Buffalo team.  Give him some time to develop. Let him get some chemistry.

I’m not guaranteeing either guy is going to become “the guy” or become “the future” but with iron man Rivers still starting your backup QB won’t matter much.  Let the chips fall and worst case scenario pick up a guy who becomes a camp casualty.

Underreaction: Four turnovers

The Chargers turned the ball over 4 times this week.  Now I’m not saying the # of turnovers is a big deal. I’m saying the turnovers looked like they came because this team wasn’t ready to play. It looked sloppy. Hopefully with all the ones in the sloppiness ends.

Kansas City Chiefs

Overreaction: Mahomes is a checkdown Charlie

The Mahomes stat line wasn’t impressive.  And yes it was full of check downs and dumps to the flat.  But Mahomes flashed some pocket presence by feeling pressure and getting the ball somewhere safe for a positive play.  At this point in time, showing he can be safe with the ball after his training camp INTs is not a bad thing.

I think we all know he will be able to air the ball out. It will be his decision making that is the real issue this year. As long as he continues to push down the field and scores some points this preseason they should be fine.

Underreaction: Depleted secondary played well

Outside of penalties from David Amerson, the Chiefs secondary without both starting safeties played well against Houston’s depth.  While I understand it was Weeden and Webb, it should be encoraging to know that this unit can play.

AFC West Training Camp Questions

Without asking the obvious, let’s look at 3 questions heading into each team’s training camp.

Los Angeles Chargers

Obvious Question – Should this team really be considered the class of the AFCW?

  1. Can the defense repeat and even build upon their successes of 2017? It sure looks like they have all the pieces in place to be one of the best defenses in the AFC. If there is a weakness, it may be in the middle of the front 7. With the ability to line up one on in on the outside, they can get creative in providing support for the middle.
  2. Will they be able to stay as healthy as they were able to in 2017? This team is usually bitten by the injury bug more often than they were in 2017. This may be worth keeping an eye on heading into training camp.
  3. How will the offensive line come together? Forrest Lamp should be ready to go in year 2, Dan Feeney has a solid rookie season, Mike Pouncey was signed in Free Agency. The pieces seem to be there, but the question will be is how they all come together.

Kansas City Chiefs

Obvious Question – Patrick Mahomes.

  1. Will the revamped defense turn things around? The Chiefs defense was bipolar last year. Rather than replacing their defensive coordinator, the Chiefs decided to part ways with players like Marcus Peters and Derrick Johnson. Not the route I would have gone, but we’ll see if it pays off.
  2. Can the offense live up to the lofty expectations? There is a ton of hype surrounding the Chiefs offense heading into the season, as many expect them to be one of the best in the league despite the unproven QB.
  3. Can Kareem Hunt repeat his extraordinary rookie season? He has all the tools to be able to be once of the best backs in the league, but it will be tough to replicate what he did in 2017. With Spencer Ware back, maybe he won’t have to.

Denver Broncos

Obvious Question – Case Keenum.

  1. Is the secondary ready to handle the loss of Aqib Talib? The Broncos have an immediate replacement at the #1 CB position in Bradley Roby, the question will be if the rest of the group is ready to step in and provide he and Chris Harris Jr the necessary support to do what Denver has done so well the last few seasons with Talib in the mix.
  2. Who starts on the offensive line, and where? The coaching staff has their work cut out for them putting the best unit together. I think you will see a myriad of combinations running in 1st/2nd team throughout training camp.
  3. Are there enough weapons to help ease the pressure for Case Keenum? Despite putting up gawdy career numbers, Demaryius Thomas just doesn’t seem like a trustworthy receiver to help alleviate that pressure. Denver drafted Courtland Sutton and Desean Hamilton, but questions still linger at the TE and RB positions.

Las Vegas Raiders by way of Oakland

Obvious Question – Jon Gruden

  1. Will Derek Carr bounce back into form? Carr was miserable in 2017. Sure, a lot of that can be attributed to those around him, but Carr still shoulders plenty of responsibility as well. Regaining his health, and hopefully a significant improvement schematically are great starts.
  2. Is Paul Guenther capable of putting a respectable defense together? Oakland added a lot of guys this offseason on that side of the ball. It sure seems like Guenther has a few more pieces in the secondary that the previous defensive coordinator didn’t have, but with the sheer amount of new faces, Guenther has his work cut out for him.
  3. How will Tom Cable and this offensive line co-exist? I still don’t know what the idea is up front, but on paper we have a predominantly zone scheme OL coach coaching up one of the heaviest offensive lines in the league. Not typically how you’d draw this up, and when Todd Downing tried running zone last year, it failed miserably.

Football Is Back!!

Offseason Review: 3-Time SB Champion Denver Broncos

What a great offseason it has been for the Denver Fucking Broncos (I hereby demand that we refer to them as DFB from this point on). If you don’t agree with this bullet-proof statement, then you are a hater and overall bad person.

The 2018 NFL draft was an unquestioned success for DFB. Elway really is the best at what he does. It’s amazing.

1st: Bradley Chubb (3-4 OLB or 4-3 DE, whatever). Best pick in the draft.

2nd: Courtland Sutton (WR). This lanky MFer is the 2nd best pick in the draft

3rd: Royce Freeman (RB from a dubious school). The best RB prospect in decades was the 3rd best pick in the draft.

3rd: Isaac Yiadom (CB). The BC product is the first Hasidic Jew to play in the NFL, and was the 4th best pick in this draft.

4th: Josey Jewell (LB). Shitty school, but this grinder, gym rat was the 5th best pick in the draft.

If you don’t get the reference, FO

4th: DaeSean Hamilton (WR). #1 feel good story in the NFL draft that has both hands, and he’s also the 6th best pick in the draft.

I don’t feel like listing out the rest of the picks. I can sense the jealousy already building in the rest of the AFCW fans.

Free Agency:

CK4. ‘Nuff said.

This pass went for a TD.

Offseason Review: Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs offseason has been one of change. Hopefully this change is for the better and I think it will be. Gone are some of the old Vet’s, gone is Dorsey, gone is the ever-debated Alex Smith and this new era will start with Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid and Brett Veach.

This coming year is a transition year and a risk for a regression.  I would not outright predict a regression or call this a rebuild but there are enough unknowns that the Chiefs could be in for a dip in the win column.

I’m not going to go into a deep analysis of each pick for two reasons. First is I don’t follow college football. The second is even the experts are guessing.  What I will do is provide a high-level review of the offseason, what I think the Chiefs are doing, why they are doing it and how it will affect the 2018 season.

Veach saw the playoff games the last two years.  There were two main problems.  First was the inability to stop the run.  The second was the offense sputtering out once a key player like Kelce was out of the game. Pass rush or lack thereof was also an issue.  So, what does Veach do?

Draft – All defensive players: (except for Reggie’s little boy – converting to an OG)

Round 2: Breeland Speaks: Pass rusher, will play inside and out upfront, rotational starter

Round 3: Derrick Nnadi:  Run stuffing NT, rotational starter

Round 3: Dorian O’Daniel: 3rd Safety/Coverage LB on passing downs, cover TE’s ect.

Round 4: Armani Watts: Rotational player with a shot to start

Round 6: Tremon Smith: Athletic small school CB, who could start day one or get cut or anything in between (unknown)

Round 6: Kahlil McKenzie: DL that will make a move to OL, developmental project

Offseason Moves:

Free Agents: Sammy Watkins, Anthony Hitchens, Xavier Williams, Chad Henne, Matt McGloin, David Amerson, Damien Williams and Kerwynn Williams:

Watkins provides another offensive weapon with a knack for getting open. Hitchens and Williams should both be an upgrade over old man DJ and Bennie Logan who had a terrible year.  Amerson will likely be fighting for playing time and looking to recapture his early success.  The RBs are probably competing for the 3rd down receiving back role.

Cut/signed elsewhere:  Revis, DJ, Hali, Parker, A Wilson, R Wilson, Gaines, Acker, Fulton, Mitchell, Logan

Re-signed: Colquitt, Sherman, DAT, Jenkins, Smith, Devey

Traded: Peters & Alex Smith + 6th rounder for Kendall Fuller, 3rd round pick, 4th round pick and a 2019 second round pick.

Back from IR: Berry, Ford, Morse, Ware

Clearly Veach wanted to address the run defense and pass rush and he did that early in the draft. He also addressed this in Free Agency and with the mid-season trade for Reggie Ragland.  Watkins addressed the need for another offensive weapon.

Another theme coming from the team is to have a more attack style defense.  The Chiefs front seven plan to be in attack mode much more than they have been the past two years. I expect a lot of different personnel at various positions attacking the line of scrimmage, lots of versatility.  The addition of Speaks, Williams and Nnadi along with the returning cast makes this possible.  Additionally, the DB’s will play a ton of press coverage (something Peters didn’t do).

While everything above matters, none of it matters more than Patrick Mahomes.  Kelce, Hunt, Hill, Watkins, Conley, DAT– that’s a ton of speed at the skill positions.  Mahomes has shown ridiculous arm strength and the ability to throw anywhere on the field from crazy body positions with accuracy.  Mahomes is in a great position to succeed, now he needs to prove it.

Veach/Reid/Sutton wanted to get younger, wanted another offensive target, wanted a more attack style D, wanted to improve the run defense, wanted to improve the pass rush and wanted high-character players that are all about football.  I think they have done that, but time will tell.

Why all this change when you’re the winner of the past two AFCW championships, with 5 winning seasons in a row and a 16-2 in division record over the past 3 years?  Super Bowl.  That is the goal. Right now, with what the Chiefs believe is a franchise QB on a cheap contract is the best time to achieve that goal.

Mentally prepare yourself now. Because next year you’re all going to get Mahome’d.

Offseason Review: Oakland Raiders

With the draft finally here and gone, it is time to take a step back and assess how each of the AFCW teams have done. We will start with the Las Vegas Raiders by way of Oakland.

Coaching Staff – The Raiders completely revamped their coaching staff, bringing in Jon Gruden along with his chosen staff. OC – Greg Olsen, DC – Paul Geunther, and ST – Rich Bisacchia.

Free Agents Lost – David Amerson (Chiefs), Sean Smith (State Penitentiary), TJ Carrie (Browns), Navarro Bowman (FA), Denico Autry (Colts)

Players Traded Away – Cordarelle Patterson (Patriots), Jamize Olawale (Cowboys)

Free Agents Re-Signed – Justin Ellis, Lee Smith, Reggie Nelson

Free Agents Signed – Too many to list, 20 to be exact. I will just list the notables. Rashaan Melvin, Tahir Whitehead, Jordy Nelson, Marcus Gilchrist, Daryl Worley, Leon Hall, Shareece Wright, Kyle Wilber, Tank Carradine, Doug Martin.

Raiders were busy in free agency, adding a handful of key starter/contributors, and overhauling the bottom third of the roster adding a lot of veteran depth. They did a good job of creating some quality depth across the roster that really allowed them to shift their focus to their needs entering draft day. Let’s see how they managed.

Needs Entering Draft: DT (pass rush specifically), OT, CB, DE, ILB, WR, TE, P.

Draft Selections:

Round 1, pick 15 (from ARI) — Kolton Miller, OT, UCLA
Round 2, pick 57 (from TEN) — PJ Hall, DT, Sam Houston State
Round 3, pick 65 (from BAL) — Brandon Parker, OT, North Carolina A&T
Round 3, Pick 87 (from LAR) — Arden Key, DE, LSU
Round 4, pick 110 — Nick Nelson, CB, Wisconsin
Round 5, pick 140 (from IND) — Maurice Hurst, DT, Michigan
Round 5, pick 173 (from DAL) — Johnny Townsend, P, Florida
Round 6, pick 216 (Comp) — Azeem Victor, ILB, Washington
Round 7, pick 228 — Marcel Ateman, WR, Oklahoma State

First thing that stands out is the amount of trades that the Raiders made during the draft. They targeted players they wanted, and navigated up and down in order to draft them where they figured the value was appropriate. Let’s see how well they did in filling their needs.

DT – The Raiders have a couple quality run stopping options at defensive tackle, but they badly need some pass rush from the interior defensive line positions. They were able to draft the most productive interior pass rushers at both the FBS and the FCS levels in Maurice Hurst and PJ Hall respectively. Plenty of questions marks surround these two, but there is a very high reward associated with the risk.

OT – They drafted, arguably, the best LT prospect in the draft. I believe they would have drafted Mike McGlinchey at #10 to fill the hole at RT had they stayed put, but with the 49ers selecting him right ahead of them, the Raiders opted to trade back, pick up a little draft capital (that they’d in turn flip in a trade to the Steelers for WR Martavis Bryant) and select Kolton Miller, whom projects as Donald Penn’s replacement at LT. They also selected Brandon Parker in the 3rd round to compete for the open RT position. I’d guess he’s an early practice squad candidate, which is a huge disappointment for a 3rd round pick.

CB – A quality find in Nick Nelson from Wisconsin adds to a suddenly competitive cornerback position for the Raiders. This should be a fun group to watch compete in training camp to see if Conley/Melvin can establish themselves as the starters, and to see who rounds out the last few spots on the roster.

DE – Raiders are still looking for the “Robin” across the LOS from Khalil Mack. Bruce Irvin has been a quality player, but the Raiders could afford to find a better player at DE, freeing up Irvin to play for of a SLB role. Insert Arden Key, DE from LSU. First round talent, but a plethora of character concerns forced Key to fall to the 3rd round where the Raiders scooped him with the 87th overall pick.

ILB – I, like the Reggie McKenzie apparently, feel pretty comfortable with who they already have at the LB position, but most of the pundits had this as a much higher need. The Raiders used a late round pick to add Azeem Victor from Washington. Another player with a lot of desirable traits, but comes with questions marks as he suffered a knee injury in 2016, and a DUI arrest in 2017.

WR – Raiders added Martavis Bryant by trading the 3rd round pick they received from the Cardinals in the trade in the 1st round. Great addition if Bryant can keep his nose out of trouble. Sensing a trend?

TE – The Raiders did not address this position, and will enter OTA’s with a paper thin depth chart with a quality player in Jared Cook, but limited players behind him in Lee Smith and Derek Carrier

P – Oakland drafted Marquette King’s replacement, Johnny Townsend in the 5th round.

Raiders will have a new look this fall, with an all new coaching staff, surrounded by a ton of new faces to the Raiders. On paper, they seem to have improved greatly on both the offensive and defensive sides of the ball, but their success will likely be determined by the job Jon Gruden and his staff does schematically. Mark Davis and Reggie McKenzie have made a lot of risky moves. There is potential that this all blows up in their faces, but there is also a good chance that they have the makings to be a really special team.

Round One

Round 1 is in the books and there were quite a few surprises.  Baker Mayfield going #1, the Colts passing on Chubb, the Bills trading up twice, both Edmunds brothers going in the first rd and 4 QBs taken in the first 10. But let’s get into the ACFW picks.

#5 Denver Broncos

Well Chubb was supposed to go at #2 or at #4.  While the Browns were on the clock Denver actually had a deal in place to trade back with Buffalo (more on that later). When the Colts passed the deal fell apart because Denver couldn’t pass on Chubb.  While in my opinion Chubb would thrive in a 4-3 as a DE with his hand on the ground, I have looked into his tests to see how far he is from Von Miller, an ideal 3-4 OLB.

Chubb doesn’t have Von’s flat out speed, nor should he being that he weighed 20+ lbs more than him at their respective combines, but he is quicker.  Chubbs 3- cone drill and 20 yard shuttle times are both much better than Miller’s. So I also decided to look for another 3-4 OLB that matches his size and speed and I can only find Jadeveon Clowney.  While Jadeveon is slightly more of a physical freak than Chubb is, he lacks the mental makeup you’d like in a star player. Injuries and other things have slowed Clowney’s progress, but he had 9.5 sacks in his first full season last year.

I don’t think Chubb needs the time to be coached up like Clowney did and expect him to produce this year, but I can’t help think he’d be better off like Joey Bosa and playing a 4-3 DE.

When it all comes down to it Denver took the best defensive talent in the draft, a player that everyone is assuming will be a multiple time pro bowler.  At some point you just can’t fight it.  The pass rush in Denver will be nasty.

Grade:  A-

#15 Oakland Raiders

Well it seems like the Raiders came into this round OT or bust.  With all the pass rush in the AFCW this isn’t a terrible idea. When the target they obviously had their eyes on went to the 9ers at #9, OAK was forced to trade back with ARI at #15.  While according to the draft chart, they didn’t get fleeced like some previously thought, they did get a little less value than the #10 is worth.  They then took their newly acquired 3rd rd pick and traded for Martavis Bryant.

What they get in Martavis is an extremely fast big play WR, who also happens to be on the NFL shit list. Now I don’t know if and what other teams were offering for Bryant, but a 3rd seems a little high for a guy on the substance abuse list who has attitude problems.  It just seems like too much of a risk to me.  Can Gruden be BB and straighten him out?  Maybe.

But the pick was Kolton Miller a LT out of UCLA. Now there are a lot of ways to look at this pick. Was he overdrafted? Yes. Is he a true LT and not RT? Yes. Are the reviews pretty mixed on this guy? Yes. But I see a guy who can get better. With added strength he can add to his athleticism for the mammoth of a tackle that he is.  Donald Penn is 35 and his contract is up soon, so Miller has a year to prepare himself to be the Raiders OT of the future.

There are many ways to look at this and think OAK should have gotten more. Or OAK should have taken so and so.  But when the 9ers took McGlinchey they basically fucked OAK. They couldn’t take Miller at 10 and they took what they could get for it.  They couldn’t risk trading back again in case another team decided they needed an OT in this thin class. At the end of the day, if you’re a results oriented person, you got an OT to possibly replace Newhouse and in the future Penn, and a deep threat for your QB.

Grade: B-

#17 LA Chargers

Well fuck. Not much to say about this one because it’s a hell of a steal.  With Tre Boston not being resigned, Derwin James will come in and be an instant upgrade. This kid is nasty. He’s a big hitter who is fast and can make some huge plays.  His coverage skills are not elite but they can be taught. His instinct is there just needs some polishing.

Yes the Chargers did take another player with a knee injury on their record but really when have injuries hurt them?

My only knock on this pick is the problem with their defense isn’t the secondary. They gave up a ton of yards on the ground last year.  While Vea was gone I still would have addressed that need first.  Derwin has the ability to help in the run game but it’s not in your best interest to have your safetys driving your run defense.  But in the end they got a hell of a player that fills a need.

Grade: A

Final thoughts

Denver had a deal in place with Buffalo who really wanted Allen. They ended up moving up 5 spots instead of 7 and got absolutely fleeced by the Bucs. I can’t help but wonder how much more Denver could have gotten out of them if CLE did what they were supposed to do and drafted Chubb. Even if it was just the 2 #2s and an added 3 or 4 it would be intriguing to see what could have been.

There is still a ton of talent on the board. If you’re a Chiefs fan you better hope Mahomes was worth it for missing out on a deep draft. With the picks today there will be plenty of talent for OAK and DEN to choose from. And should be some goodies for the Chiefs and SD.

Good luck on Day 2.