Broncos vs Vikings

Because certain biased individuals fail to see the positive impact of having a quality QB on your team, and also cannot see the negative impact of having a terrible one, we will be looking at pff grades from both the Vikings (13 wins omg) and the Broncos (recently went from #3 pick to a playoff win).

QBs can tire defenses out if they have too many 3 and outs, pick 6s, 2 and INTs, or even my favorite, the 1 and fumble.  They impact the OL because if you have no pocket awareness, and cannot move with the pocket, then pass blocking for them becomes impossible. They impact WRs, in the obvious way, by throwing catchable passes. Preferably further than 3 yards down field, and preferably at someone in the same colored jersey.  They impact running backs because when they suck the defense can stack the box.

While keeping that in mind, let’s look at the grades.  I will try to keep it to the players who Keenum played with and who he will play with this year.  Also let it be known that I have resorted to using PFF grades because with the exception of maybe Balls and myself (I watched every Vikings game BTW) I honestly doubt anyone here has watched more than 2 Vikings games in the last year.


Case Keenum- 85.3 #9 QB

Trevor Siemian- 53.2  #36 QB

Clearly we have a major advantage in Keenum.   While he was a top 10 QB in the league Trevor seemed to play worse than 2 backups that registered grades.  85.3 is a high quality grade while 53.2 is a poor grade.  Lets see if the surrounding casts are much different from each other.

Running Backs

Latavius Murray- 77.1

CJ Anderson- 86.0

DeVontae Booker- 72.9

I added Anderson in here because he was the starting back and you would expect Bookers #s to improve as a starter.  But even removing that fact this seems like a draw.  Both sides earning average grades.  Draw.

Offensive Line

LT Riley Rieff- 48.6

LT Garrett Bolles- 68.8

LG Jeremiah Sirles- 45.2

LG Ron Leary- 81.2

C Pat Eflein- 43.2

C Matt Paradis- 75.2

RG Joe Berger- 75.7

RG Connor McGovern- 40.2

RT Mike Remmers- 69.6

RT Jared Veldheer- 54.3

(Watson- 38.9)

Left side of the line obvious advantage to the Broncos.   Right side Vikings.   Difference maker comes down to Center where despite having an off year Paradis has the much better grade and was still the #9 center in the league.   Velheer may hopefully bring some better play at RT improving his grade off his injury shortened season but I’m not holding my breath.   Advantage Broncos.

Tight Ends

Kyle Rudolph- 73.1

Jeff Heuerman- 73.6

(Virgil Green- 43.1)

I know Rudolph had a down year.  But that is the TE that Keenum played with.   I added in Green here because he was the starter and to also show the Chargers how shitty of a TE he is.   Heuerman played well in limited play actually earning a higher grade than Rudolph.   With question marks around Butts and Heuerman’s lack of play I give a very slight edge to Minnesota.

Wide Receivers

Stefon Diggs- 85.4

Demaryius Thomas- 75.3

Adam Thielen- 84.6

Emmanuel Sanders- 70.7

Here it is the real “difference” between the 2 offenses.  But lets look at it this way.   Both Thielen and Diggs both just had the best years of their young careers. Both in their 3rd year playing had their best years ever by far (Diggs is when you look at the fact he missed games) when Keenum became their QB and conversely Thomas and Sanders have been suffering since Manning left.   I’ll give the maybe edge to the Vikings but this is too close to call now.   Its pretty hard to grade well as a WR if the QB can’t get you the ball further than 5 yards down the field.

Defensive Fronts

Edge Danielle Hunter- 82.6

Edge Shaqil Barrett- 82.1

DT Tom Johnson- 77.7

DE/DT Derek Wolfe- 78.0

NT Linval Joseph- 88.7

NT Domata Peko- 80.0

Everson Griffen- 89.2

Adam Gotsis- 77.1

Edge Anthony Barr- 71.4

Edge Von Miller- 95.0

Going position by position there is no major difference here except for Griffen is better than Gotsis and Miller is way better than Barr.   There is a small difference between Peko and Joseph but the overwhelming difference between Miller and Barr evens this out.   Draw.


Erik Kendricks- 75.1

Todd Davis- 77.1

Ben Gedeon- 76.2

Brandon Marshall- 54.6

Brandon Marshall’s score here surprises me. I knew he had an off year but I didn’t think it was this bad.   But lets be honest.  Both of these groups are average at best.   I should say draw here but slight advantage Vikings.


Trae Waynes- 74.1

Bradley Roby- 84.0

Xavier Rhodes- 80.2

Chris Harris Jr.- 83.5

The obvious advantage is Denver here.  Even though Waynes was often replaced with Terrance Newman, Newman only scored a 75.   Denver hands down.


SS Andrew Sendejo- 86.8

SS Justin Simmons- 80.2

FS Harrison Smith- 97.0

FS Darian Stewart- 70.3

Harrison Smith is the best S in the game.  And yes the obvious swing is to the Vikings here.   Stewart is coming off an off year without TJ Ward and maybe he will continue to struggle without him.  Advantage Vikings.

So being that I believe the topic was that the Vikings are “top to bottom better than Denver, except Miller and Harris” and the fact that there is no real other way to judge this outside of “well imo” or “Obviously they’re better I don’t need to give proof”, PFF would strongly disagree.  In fact in more ways than one these teams are remarkably similar in many ways.  So I will give you this.  The Vikings are better coached.   On a talent base I don’t see how they’re that much better.

2018 NFL 3 Round Mock Draft (AFC West)

With the 2018 NFL Draft only a few weeks away, I decided to give a 3 round mock draft a try. Looking at all the mocks out there, factoring in free agency and listening to you gentlemen, here is what I came up with, enjoy!

Denver Broncos

Draft Picks – 5th, 40th, 71st and 99th

Team Needs – TE, LG, QB, WR

1st Round – Baker Mayfield (6’1”, 215) QB Oklahoma
Elway’s draft history suggest that he loves big, strong armed quarterbacks. This time he takes a guy a little different. Coming out this year, the Heisman Trophy winner has more accuracy and swagger than any other quarterback.

2nd Round – Austin Corbett (6’4”, 306) OG Nevada
Denver has suffered through ineffective offensive line play for a few years. They have been plugging these holes as fast as possible. Enter Corbett. This guy has started 48 of 49 games at Left Tackle. He will kick inside and be a plug and play guard for the next ten years.

3rd Round – Hayden Hurst (6’4”, 250) TE South Carolina
Denver hasn’t gotten much production out of its tight ends lately and desperately need that to change. If Jake Butt, who missed his rookie year because of a college knee injury, can come back to be a productive player, that would help. But the Broncos can’t bank on it. Enter Hurst. He is a match-up nightmare and very productive. Simply put, he is a steal and would be a day 1 starter.

3rd Round – DaeSean Hamilton (6’1”, 203) WR Penn State
The Broncos have been trying to find a 3rd Receiver that can get it done on 3rd down. Say hello to Mr. Hamilton. He is not the fastest or biggest guy, but he is almost always open and has good hands. He is a 1st down machine. This is a good addition to the Denver offense.

Oakland Raiders

Draft Picks – 10th, 41st and 75th

Team Needs – CB, LB, DT, OT

1st Round – Denzel Ward (5’10, 185) CB Ohio State
Let’s keep it real, the Raiders secondary was flat out HORRIBLE last year. They have purged it quite a bit and added some free agents but still need another long-term solution. Enter Ward. When the top Corner in the draft falls, he is too good to pass on. He is a bit under-sized, but he plays like a Pitbull and is insanely fast. This is just what the doctor ordered.

2nd Round – Lorenzo Carter (6’5”, 250) OLB/DE Georgia
The Raiders have moved Bruce Irvin from Strong-side Linebacker to Defensive End leaving a big hole at the second level. Tight ends have had career days against the Raiders defense. Enter Carter. He has the ability to rush the passer but the speed and skill-set to drop into coverage (4.46 40 time). He is a very instinctive and has at time covered receivers in the slot. This guy is versatile and a perfect fit for the Raiders new attacking defense.

3rd Round – PJ Hall (6’1”, 310) DT Sam Houston State
For the better part of a half decade, the Raiders continue to search for an interior playmaker. The disruptive force in the middle continues to elude them. Welcome Mr. Hall. When drafting a small school prospect you look for him to flat out crush his competition. Well PJ did just that. In four years he posted 289 tackles, 36.5 sacks, 86.5 TFL, 29 PBU, 14 blocked kicks and 9 forced fumbles. He is strong as an ox and a motor that never stops. He is Geno Atkins 2.0 and just what Guenther needs for his defense.

Los Angeles Chargers

Draft Picks – 17th, 48th and 84th

Team Needs – DT, ILB, OT, QB

1st Round – DaRon Payne (6’2”, 311) DT Alabama
The Chargers were second to last against the run last year. DT Brandon Mebane is 33 years old. Time for some youth to help fix this problem. Say hello to Major Payne. That is what teams call this monster when they attempt to run against him. This guy will not only be a starter from day one but will rack up big tackles and keep the linebackers behind him clean.

2nd Round – Micah Kiser (6’0”, 240) ILB Virginia
Mostly due to injuries, Los Angeles used a four-man rotation at inside linebacker a season ago. Perryman is the only one that will return as a starter. Kiser is a flat out tackling machine and will be a beast against the run. This guy has fantastic instincts and will be a huge upgrade for the Chargers.

3rd Round – Chukwuma Okorafor (6’6”, 320) OT Western Michigan
While the Chargers offensive line certainly will get a boost from the free agent addition of center Mike Pouncey and the healthy return of 2017 second-round pick Forrest Lamp, the right tackle spot is in line for an upgrade. Enter Okorafor. This guy is very athletic and a great pass blocker. He will help keep River clear and more importantly, healthy.

Kansas City Chiefs

Draft Picks – 54th, 78th and 86th

Team Needs – CB, OG, ILB, OLB

2nd Round – Donte Jackson (5’10”, 180) CB LSU
A complete overhaul of the cornerback position is underway as the Chiefs traded away Marcus Peters but signed David Amerson and acquired Kendall Fuller. They need some speed at the position and draft Jackson. He is not big, but he is crazy fast and plays with a chip on his shoulder.

3rd Round – Arden Key (6’5”, 240) OLB LSU
What was once a strength the outside linebacker position is a big question mark heading into 2018 as Tamba Hali was released and Dee Ford coming off of back surgery. Enter Key. He has 1st round talent as a pass rusher but also has off-field issues that will drop him in the draft, to the Chiefs delight. This is a steal in the 3rd round.

3rd Round – Braden Smith (6’6”, 315) OG Auburn
Laurent Duvernay-Tardif has been a revelation for the Chiefs as he has developed into one of the 15 best guards according to Pro Football Focus. With Zach Fulton leaving in free agency and Parker Ehinger being inactive all season the Chiefs could really look to shore up their weak spot along the line. Hello Mr. Smith. This guy is just nasty at both pass and run blocking. Another steal for the Chiefs.

Raiders Free Agent Grades

It’s been a while since I’ve contributed around here, so bare with me a little. I was thinking about grading the Raiders free agent signings individually in the comments section, but quickly realized we had a ton of signings and that it’d probably be best if I write an article instead. Pull a little of my own weight around here.

Much has been made of the signings in Oakland as Jon Gruden begins his tenure, that he’s following the same old recipe as his last stop. Opting for aging veterans, than the youth that typically wins out in today’s NFL.  I think it’s all overblown, and just writers looking to generate clicks, and right now there are few things in the NFL that will generate more clicks than a Raiders hot take.

Lets take a look at all of the Raiders free agency moves heading into the last few weeks before the draft.

CB Rashaan Melvin – A+ – The biggest need the Raiders had going into the offseason was at cornerback, and the Raiders added a guy that was a lockdown corner in 2017 on a cheap 1 year, $6.5M prove it deal. One of the best signings in all of free agency this offseason.

S Marcus Gilchrist – A- – The Raiders added a solid veteran DB on another small 1 year, $4.5M contract in Gilchrist. Gilchrist logged over 100 snaps at S, LB, and slot CB in 2017. Paul Guenther needed that versatility in his secondary given all the question marks it had when he agreed to be the team’s new DC.

S/CB Leon Hall – A- – A sneaky good signing by the Raiders, given Hall’s plethora of experience in Guenther’s defense. Hall can contribute in many ways off the field, and can still contribute in a limited capacity on the field as well.

LB Tahir Whitehead – B+ – One of the Raiders other big needs was at LB. Whitehead is another player that adds a lot of versatility with his ability to play all 3 LB positions in Guenther’s defense. The only reason this grade isn’t higher is due to the size of contract Oakland doled out, 3 years $18M.

WR Jordy Nelson – B – One of the bigger surprises so far this offseason, was replacing the often controversial Michael Crabtree with a more calming presence in Jordy Nelson. Given the size of the contracts that were being handed out to WR’s this free agency, Oakland has to feel good about getting Nelson for 2 years and $15M despite his age. I didn’t see a player that lost much of a step in his advanced age, I’m only a little hesitant about the signing because of Jordy’s injury history.

LB Kyle Wilber – B – Wilber adds some versatility to the Raiders depth chart, but more importantly he’s been a rock in the Cowboys special teams units since he was drafted in the 4th round of the 2014 draft.

DE Tank Carradine – B – No risk signing with some upside. Solid depth along the defensive line with some ability to contribute in ST’s.

WR/KR Dewayne Harris – B- – A solid Patterson replacement, I haven’t seen the details of this contract, but I’m assuming its in the $2-3M range annually.

FB Keith Smith – C+ – I was originally pretty high on this pickup, trading an overpaid fullback in Olawale for some draft positioning and a cheaper, better run blocking FB in Smith…. but then I saw the Raiders gave Smith a 2 year $4.2M contract.

RB Doug Martin – C – Again, little risk with some upside. If Martin makes the team, it will be because he looks like 4.9 YPC Doug Martin, and not 2.9 YPC Doug Martin in training camp.

CB Shareece Wright – C – I think you could do worse at #4/5 CB than Shareece Wright. Nothing flashy, but a decent add.

OT Breno Giocamini – D+ – The guy is not good. I have a sneaky suspicion that he will actually make the team, and be relied upon at times, which I don’t like. Hopefully the younger guys step up in training camp. I think the ability is there for Sharpe, Kirkland, Alexander and Ware, they just have to do it.

Other FA signings that I’m not going to bother elaborating on S Reggie Nelson, QB EJ Manuel, QB Josh Johnson, LB Emmanuel Lamur, P Colby Wadman, LS Andrew Depaola, TE Derek Carrier, TE Lee Smith, WR/KR Griff Whalen.

Oakland has been busy this offseason. I thought the Raiders did a solid job adding a few starters and key contributors at positions of need but maybe more importantly rounding out the bottom of the roster with high character veterans. I think McKenzie and Gruden raised the floor of the Raiders depth chart significantly on financially savvy deals. The moves should buy management a couple/few years to hopefully add more difference makers via the draft, something they haven’t been able to accomplish the last couple years.

After signing the best QB in free agency, what’s next for Denver?

As free agency starts it appears Denver will sign Case Keenum to a 2 year 36 million dollar deal. This move leaves huge questions marks for Denver moving forward. Is this going to be Case’s team for the next two years and beyond? Or will Denver still use their 5th overall pick to grab another quarterback? Denver’s draft strategy heavily depends on how those questions will be answered. Will we take that fiery competitor? Or will they take This Guy Fucks out of Notre Dame?

Option 1.

Draft a quarterback at 5. We saw the Chicago Bears sign Mike Glennon to a short deal last year. Similar to what Denver will sign Keenum for. The Bears still used a high pick to take Mitch Trubisky. Ultimately Trubisky ended up starting most the year, and now the Bears have released Glennon. The move ended up being low risk for the Bears as they have their franchise guy in Trubisky, and they easily moved on from Glennon. This could be Elway’s goal with signing Keenum. If that’s his plan Denver should be able to get a guy they like at 5 whether it be Darnold, Mayfield, Rosen, or God forbid Allen. Out of those 4 guys the only 1 who needs a year to sit is probably Allen. Which may mean Denver needed a short term veteran to play for a year while Allen learns from the bench. That could mean Elway wanted Allen all along, hence Keenum signing a short term deal.

Option 2.

Stay at 5 and draft a guy who can make an impact instantly. This guy fucks, aka Quentin Nelson, would be the best case scenario for Denver at 5. He’d be able to step in at the left guard spot instantly and hopefully be a Pro Bowl caliber player for a decade. Denver’s offensive line was improved last year, and when fully healthy they looked better than expected. So TGF would only go to solidify an improving group. Personally if Denver couldn’t get TGF I’d want them to take Barkley. He can run, catch, and block making him an every down back. The last 2 seasons we’ve seen teams, Dallas in 2016 and Jacksonville in 2017, use high picks on running backs and those teams both won their divisions that season. The idea you can’t use a high pick on a running back is starting to become an outdated idea.

Option 3.

Trade back. If those two prospects are gone at 5 Denver should be able to trade back. Buffalo has a huge question mark at quarterback after trading Tyrod Taylor. Denver might be able to get a deal done trading their 5th pick for Buffalo’s 12th and 22nd picks. Other mid round picks would be involved I’m sure, but who has the time to speculate on that. One of those top quarterbacks should be available at 5, so this move would make sense for both teams. With the Gotsis arrest this week Denver could use those picks to take BPA on both the offensive and defensive lines.

Option 4.

We resign this guy to take us back to glory.

Overall it’s unclear whether Elway actually has faith in Keenum to be a long term solution. Or if Keenum is even capable of that. But the draft will let us know what Elway is thinking and how much he actually believes in Keenum. Until then we can all argue back and forth about how much Denver fucked up by not getting Kirk Cousins.




2018 Compensatory Draft Picks (AFC West)

When the salary cap era of the NFL began in 1993, many changes came to the league other than just the eponym of this era. One of those changes was the introduction of unrestricted free agency. Another was to reduce the number of rounds in the draft from twelve to seven. However, while there have been officially seven rounds ever since, in truth the total number of draft picks equate to eight rounds. This is due to advent of compensatory draft picks, a entire round’s worth of picks that are distributed among the ends of rounds 3 through 7 that are awarded to teams that lose certain Unrestricted Free Agents (known as Compensatory Free Agents) to other teams.

The formula used to award compensatory draft picks, developed by the NFL Management Council, has never been publicly revealed. However, in the years since 1994 outside observers have been able to determine much of how the formula works, and have created projections in an effort to demystify how compensatory picks work, a process that has confused many an NFL fan. Since 2017, the NFL has allowed Compensatory Picks to be traded like any other pick.

This article looks at the picks awarded to teams in the AFC West. Let’s get started.
Kansas City Chiefs – 6th Round (209 Overall)
Los Angeles Chargers – 7th Round (251 Overall)
Denver Broncos – 3rd Round (99 Overall)
Oakland Raiders – 6th Round (210, 212, 216 and 217 Overall)

Looking at the awarded picks, the Broncos and Raiders won the west. The Broncos received a pick in the top 100. They need a quarterback and already have the number 5 overall pick. With this additional pick, they can package picks and move up if they really like one of the quarterbacks coming out. They could also stay where they are, sign on of the top name free agent quarterbacks and use this pick to get a top offensive lineman.

The Raiders have 4 picks all at the end of the 6th round. Jon Gruden will more than likely want to move up in the draft and get 1 or 2 blue chip players for his horrible defense (minus Mack). I could see him packaging these picks to move up in the draft in either the 2nd or 3rd round to get and extra defensive stud.

The Chiefs have been busy this off season. They traded their starting quarterback and their number 1 cornerback. They picked up a 3rd round pick and CB Kendall Fuller for QB Alex Smith. The terms of the Peters trade have not been released yet but it can be assumed that it is going to be a premium pick or picks. Having an extra pick never hurts.

The Chargers are a better team than most want to acknowledge. Having an extra pick, even a low one, does not bode well for the rest of the AFC West. If this team can stay healthy and fill a few holes, I believe they are a serious contender not only in the division but for the conference.

I think will see the AFC West be very busy during the draft and in free agency. Stand by for what I believe will be a wild ride for the entire division.

Draft Preview

Well now that the season is over and the Chiefs are preparing for their usual extremely brief stint in the playoffs it’s time to look to next year and the draft. We will start with QBs because Rivers is old, the Broncos 3 QBs together don’t make one decent high school player, Carr has let his eyeliner officially turn him into a lady, and the Chiefs are obviously getting 15 first round picks for Smith.

Sam Darnold USC

First of all, get a haircut bro.  Dudes with weird orange hair shouldn’t be flaunting it around.

Anyway, Darnold had a stellar freshman season and capped it off with a solid performance in the Rose Bowl or some other bowl against Penn State. He’s relatively mobile and has a great pocket presence that allows him to navigate the pocket like Luke Skywalker flying an X-Wing to blow up the Death Star.

He has the capability of making all the throws and does so with touch allowing his receivers to make plays. He has had a lot of talent around him and it has helped him to look better in some situations but he is by far the most NFL ready QB in college right now.

In 2017 Darnold took a couple steps back in the turnover arena, seemingly giving the ball away like he was channeling his inner Philip Rivers, yet he played significantly better in the second half of games.  He has not officially declared for the NFL draft but I do not think he will stay at USC. It will do nothing for his draft stock and teams will be looking to him to be a day one starter at the next level.