Tag: AFC West

“Free at last! Free at last! Thank God Almighty, we are free at last!”

Dr. Martin Luther King Jr.

We have endured one hell of an off season. I am thankful that most of you have survived it with class (Not talking about you Lord). After all we have gone through we finally have NFL Football. Even with limited or no fans in the stadiums, it is football and it is happening.

With all that said, here are the predictions for the season openers for the AFC West:

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs

This game will be interesting from an offensive perspective. I can see this as a shoot out in respects to the Chiefs’ offense and their questionable cornerbacks. The Texans traded away DeAndre Hopkins in the off season for David Johnson. The Texans now have a bunch of small, quick receivers but who will assume the WR1 for them? This game will be close for about 10 minutes before the high powered offense of the Chiefs takes over.

Chiefs 34 Texans 20

Spread:-9 Chiefs

Over/Under: 54.5

Las Vegas Raiders at Carolina Panthers

This is going to be a interesting game. The Panthers will turn loose the most versatile running back in football in Christian McCaffery while the Raiders will pound you with sophomore sensation Josh Jacobs. This one will come down to which team can stop the run and which quarterback makes some big plays. I think the Raiders offensive line will be the difference and they will pull away late in the game.

Raiders 27 Panthers 20

Spread:-3 Raiders

Over/Under: 48

Los Angeles Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals

This will begin the Tyrod Taylor era for the Chargers and the Joe Burrow era for the Bengals. This could turn into a bit of a shoot out. AJ Green returns and if healthy is one of the best in the league. Keenan Allen is still a match-up nightmare. Both teams have good running games but this will come down to defense. That being said, I have to give the edge to the Chargers.

Chargers 24 Bengals 17

Spread: -3 Chargers

Over/Under: 43.5

Tennessee Titans at Denver Broncos

Monday night in Denver and it will be a fun one. The Titans have the NFL’s leading rusher in Derrick Henry. They have just signed Jadeveon Clowney too. The Broncos drafted Jerry Jeudy to go with Courtland Sutton to form a pretty formidable receiver pair. This game will come down to the quarterbacks. Lock is still a mystery and Tannehill was hot and cold last year. The Broncos get a late game score and their defense takes over from there.

Broncos 31 Titans 21

Spread: 1.5 Broncos

Over/Under: 41.5

There you have it. The AFC West starts the season 4-0. Who saw that coming. Here is to a very unique season of football, CHEERS!!!! (Holds up a cup of coffee)

Well the draft is over and we are in hurry up and wait mode to see if we will have a season this year. The NFL is to the point that they are letting team facilities reopen on May 19th if they have met the standards set by the league and are allowed to by local and state regulations.

Enough about that drama. This outlook is going to look at some projections for the following in the division:

⦁ OROY
⦁ DROY
⦁ Biggest Upside
⦁ Worse Pick
⦁ Biggest Steal
⦁ Safest Pick

OROY:

Well this one is going to be a flat out slobber-knocker. The offenses in the division got a lot faster and much better. With that said, here are the front runners:

Clyde Edwards-Helaire – This guy is a match-up nightmare for everyone. He is a great runner that is hard to take down. He has great hands and catches the ball exceptionally well out of the backfield. Add the fact that he is going to one of if not the most explosive offenses in the league and he is the odds on top prospect.

Jerry Jeudy – The ankle breaker could not have gone to a better situation. He does not have to be the #1 receiver, has a flat out MONSTER on the other side and will be covered by mostly #2 corners. This should allow him to put up some serious numbers. His production will depend heavily on the development of 2nd year quarterback Drew Lock.

Henry Ruggs – He has the ability to blow past any corner but he also has the skill set to take a simple bubble screen to the house. This guy has the hands, speed and toughness to do it all. His production will come down to the way Gruden uses him.

Wildcard – Justin Herbert – Will he start or will he sit a year? This one is truly up in the air and that is why he will remain a wildcard.

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DROY:

This is an area that was addressed heavily via free agency in the division. The draft saw a few key additions added.

Kenneth Murray – This guy is a flat out tackling machine and will lead a very talented Chargers defense in that category. They gave up a lot to go and get him but he has the ability and character to be a stud for years to come.

Willie Gay – This guy has the athletic ability to be a every down player. He will have to clean up his angles and show much more production. His mental makeup will be what makes or breaks him.

Damon Arnette – He has production and a nasty disposition when he is on the field. The key for his success will be how he is used. He is scheme diverse but thrives in press man.

Wildcard – Amik Robinson – This guy is a flat out DOG! He has excellent ball skills and plays incredibly hard. Will he start or will he sit? That will be the determining factor.

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Biggest Upside:

There are some serious prospects for this category as each team did well in the draft.

Justin Herbert – He has the size, arm talent and smarts to be a franchise quarterback. The key will be his development and weapons. The Chargers drafted 2 wide receivers and a running back to aid him in the weapons department.

Jerry Jeudy – This guy could easily become Lock’s favorite target. They will get a chance to develop together. Sutton is the #1 right now but Jeudy’s route running could change that quickly.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire – He is not big (5’8″ and 210 LBS), but he is a complete back. He runs, catches and even returned some kick offs. This guy should become the bell cow back in Kansas City.

Wildcard – Henry Ruggs – You can’t coach speed. This guy has the ability to take the top off of any defense. With a top running game, top receiving tight end and one of the best o-lines in the game, Ruggs could post some insane numbers.

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Worse Pick:

There were quite a few head scratchers in this draft. This division had its share.

Damon Arnette – He has the experience, ability and production as well as playing at a power 5 school. No issue with him but a HUGE issue with where he was selected. I just don’t think he was a 1st round Cornerback.

KJ Hamler – I love his speed and the thought that he could be a great slot receiver is fantastic. The issue is his size (5’8″, 178) and his below average hands and being selected in the 2nd round. There were better prospects on the board.

Willie Gay – This kid is very athletic but he is not a 2nd round prospect. The Chiefs needed two things in this draft, a running back and a Cornerback. They got their back in the 1st round but did not draft a Cornerback until the 7th round.

Wildcard – Tanner Muse – I called this as a possibility but in the 3rd round, FO! Can you say overdrafted.

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Biggest Steal:

This one is really good because overall the division had a few steals and it will only make it stronger.

Amik Robinson – I love this guys game. He plays with his hair on fire. This guy will be a starter sooner rather than later. Getting him in the 4th round was flat out insane.

Lloyd Cushenberry – This guy is one of the smartest and strongest players I have seen in a long time at Center. He will take the starting position as a rookie. Elway got his o-line leader in the 3rd round, great steal.

Lucus Niang – This guy is a dancing bear. He slipped a bit this year because he played all year with a hip injury. Once healthy this guy will take a starting position at Offensive Tackle.

Wildcard – Lynn Bolden – He makes this list because of what he will be asked to do. Kick Returner, Punt Returner, Back-up Running Back, Wild Cat Quarterback, Slot Receiver, Gunner. This guy will be everywhere.

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Safest Pick:

The division had a few safe picks that will pay instant dividends.

Jerry Jeudy – Getting one of if not the highest regarded receiver at 15 is very safe. This guy will be a monster for years. (FO Elway!)

Kenneth Murray – This guy is a dog on the field and has the absolute highest character off of it. This is as safe as safe can be. (FO TT!)

Clyde Edwards-Helaire – National Championship winner with over 1,400 yards rushing and over 450 yards receiving. Go to the Superbowl Champions. That is a pretty safe pick. (FO Fat Andy!)

Wildcard – Henry Ruggs – His hands, work ethic and speed make him a pretty safe pick. What will Gruden do with the offense now that he is part of it is the bigger question.

Here is to a great season of football.

Well we have completed our 1st Mock Draft (Good Job Robb) and we will now take a look at each pick for each team in the division. We are also going to look at the best, worse and best value picks. And as usual, Lord’s selections were absolutely genius. How is this guy not on some teams payroll!

Without further ado, shall we. 

6. Chargers: Justin Herbert, QB, Oregon (BC)

This is a pick that you could see happening a country mile away. The Chargers need a quarterback and Herbert fills that need. Herbert has all the tools to be a franchise quarterback. The Chargers will have options here because they have Tyrod Taylor whom they could start if they feel that Herbert is not quite ready. This is a good problem to have. With 3 of the top 4 Offensive Tackles still on the board, some will say they could have gone that way. Quarterbacks still drive this league.

Rankings:

Draft Network: 13th Overall (3rd Ranked QB)

CBS Sports: 20th Overall (4th Ranked QB)

NFL.com: 26th Overall (3rd Ranked QB)

ESPN: 19th Overall (3rd Ranked QB)

Avg. Overall Ranking – 19.5 (-13.5) Avg. QB Ranking – 3.25

12. Raiders: Jeff Okudah, OSU, CB (Poe)

When you give up the 8th most passing yards per game something has to change. Enter Okudah. He is not only the #1 CB, he is a flat out monster at press man and zone coverage. This guy is a true shutdown corner. Having him on one side, Mullen on the other and Abram over the top, the Raiders will have one of the youngest but most talented secondaries in the league. 2 of the top 3 receivers were on the board but this guy is too good to pass on and secondary is a big need as well.

Rankings:

Draft Network: 3rd Overall (1st Ranked CB)

CBS Sports: 4th Overall (1st Ranked CB)

NFL.com: 2nd Overall (1st Ranked CB)

ESPN: 5th Overall (1st Ranked CB)

Avg. Overall Ranking – 3.5 (+8.5) / Avg. CB Ranking – 1.0

15. Broncos: Derrick Brown, IDL, Auburn (Balls)

Adding a Defensive Tackle of Brown’s talent at pick 15 should be a felony. This guy is a nightmare for guards and centers. He is a black hole for running games and he can push the pocket. He is scheme diverse with very heavy hands that are precise and he has a motor that never stops. He is also a very good penetrator for a man his size. The top 3 receivers are off the board so the Broncos get the best player available.

Rankings:

Draft Network: 6th Overall (1st Ranked IDL)

CBS Sports: 7th Overall (1st Ranked IDL)

NFL.com: 3rd Overall (1st Ranked IDL)

ESPN: 4th Overall (1st Ranked IDL)

Avg. Overall Ranking – 5.0 (+10) / Avg. IDL Ranking – 1.0

19. Raiders: Laviska Shenault Jr, WR, Colorado (Jeremyave)

The Raiders need a true #1 receiver with speed. Shenault ran a 4.58, that is not speed. It was reported in February that he had inflammation in his pubic bone and needed rest prior to the Combine and would not need surgery. After running the 40, it came out that he needed surgery for a core injury that affected him last year at Colorado. Having core surgery before he plays a down in the league is not what you want from a #1 receiver and a 1st round draft pick. He is talented and reminds me of a bigger Percy Harvin but the injury history is too much to ignore. With the top two Linebackers on the board this pick makes no sense at all.

Rankings:

Draft Network: 30th Overall (4th Ranked WR)

CBS Sports: 33rd Overall (6th Ranked WR)

NFL.com: 17th Overall (4th Ranked WR)

ESPN: 36th Overall (9th Ranked WR)

Avg. Overall Ranking – 29 (-10) / Avg. WR Ranking – 5.75

32. Chiefs: Noah Igbinoghene, CB, Auburn (Screwitz)

The Chiefs have a need at cornerback with Bashaud Breeland, Morris Claiborne and Kendall Fuller all unrestricted free agents. Igbinoghene has played CB for two years after switching over from the WR position. He is still raw and learning but has held his own in the SEC. He is a great kick returner and special teams player as well. He should be able to challenge for a starting position from day 1.

Rankings:

Draft Network: 43rd Overall (5th Ranked CB)

CBS Sports: 37th Overall (7th Ranked CB)

NFL.com: 64th Overall (9th Ranked CB)

ESPN: 39th Overall (4th Ranked CB)

Avg. Overall Ranking – 45.75 (-13.75) / Avg. CB Ranking – 6.25

Best Pick – Jeff Okudah (+8.5) This would be a gift for the Raiders
Worse Pick – Noah Igbinoghene (-13.75) NFL.com does not think much of him.
Best Value – Derrick Brown (+10) Talk about a steal, WOW!

/JMC the Old

I want to thank each of you for contributing to this first ever MS Mock in March.  We had a few regulars who were not around but all in all, everything worked out incredibly well.  I specifically enjoyed not having a time limit on people giving their selections.  This method also gave each of us insight into the other crap teams within the NFL too.  Well done each of you, and thank you JMC for this summary.  /Robb

AFCW Week 7 Preview

Week 6 was another crazy week of football. The Chiefs’ run defense was horrible and the Texans took advantage of that in Kansas City. The Broncos’ defense was flat out nasty as they got their 2nd win of the season against the Titans. The Steelers defense flat out punched the Chargers in the mouth and won a game in primetime that was more of a home game than a road game. The Raiders had their bye week which was needed after quite a bit of travel. Let’s look at week 7 and the match ups.

Chiefs vs Broncos
The Chiefs travel to Mile High after suffereing back to back loses at home. Their run defense has been flat out HORRIBLE. Mahomes has been dealing with an ankle injury and it has affected his scrambling ability and throwing accuracy. Tyreek Hill returned and scored twice last week. Having him back should help the passing game.

The Broncos defense posted a shut out at home against the Titans last week. When you post 7 sacks, 3 interceptions and 11 tackles for loss, you are playing well. Their offense did not do much but they did not lose the game either. They will have to run the ball well this week if they want to win.

Fantasy Player of the Game: This is a hard one. Mahomes could light it up but the Broncos running back tandum of Lindsay and Freeman could have a huge game. I am going with the Broncos running game at home.

My Prediction: Broncos 23 Chiefs 20 (OT)

Chargers vs Titans
The Chargers go to the Titans in a almost must win game. They get OT Russell Okung back and they need him. Against the Steelers last week the rushed 14 times for 32 yards. That will not cut it. Rivers lead a second half comeback only to throw a late interception that cost his team the game. He will have to take care of the ball.

The Titans were shut out by Denver last week and changed quaterbacks. Tannehill will get the start and I see them trying to lean on their run game to help him out.

Fantasy Player of the Game: This is easy, Hunter Henry is the choice. He is a match-up nightmare. I see another big game for him.

My Prediction: Chargers 24 Titans 17

Raiders vs Packers
The Raiders are coming off their bye week. They will be without their top receiver again. They traded for Zay Jones but I don’t know how much he will play. They will need to run the ball and keep it away from the Packers. They get Gabe Jackson AKA Big Smooth back which will help in the run and pass game.

The Packers are coming off a home win against the Lions. The officiating was great for the Packers and more than likely cost the Lions the game. They ran the ball well and have Aaron Rodgers. He is playing quite well right now.

Fantasy Player of the Game: With the return of Big Smooth, the Raiders will run the ball and a lot. Josh Jacobs should have a big game.

My Prediction: Packers 28 Raiders 20

Have a great football weekend!
JMC

With the 2018 NFL Draft only a few weeks away, I decided to give a 3 round mock draft a try. Looking at all the mocks out there, factoring in free agency and listening to you gentlemen, here is what I came up with, enjoy!

Denver Broncos

Draft Picks – 5th, 40th, 71st and 99th

Team Needs – TE, LG, QB, WR

1st Round – Baker Mayfield (6’1”, 215) QB Oklahoma
Elway’s draft history suggest that he loves big, strong armed quarterbacks. This time he takes a guy a little different. Coming out this year, the Heisman Trophy winner has more accuracy and swagger than any other quarterback.

2nd Round – Austin Corbett (6’4”, 306) OG Nevada
Denver has suffered through ineffective offensive line play for a few years. They have been plugging these holes as fast as possible. Enter Corbett. This guy has started 48 of 49 games at Left Tackle. He will kick inside and be a plug and play guard for the next ten years.

3rd Round – Hayden Hurst (6’4”, 250) TE South Carolina
Denver hasn’t gotten much production out of its tight ends lately and desperately need that to change. If Jake Butt, who missed his rookie year because of a college knee injury, can come back to be a productive player, that would help. But the Broncos can’t bank on it. Enter Hurst. He is a match-up nightmare and very productive. Simply put, he is a steal and would be a day 1 starter.

3rd Round – DaeSean Hamilton (6’1”, 203) WR Penn State
The Broncos have been trying to find a 3rd Receiver that can get it done on 3rd down. Say hello to Mr. Hamilton. He is not the fastest or biggest guy, but he is almost always open and has good hands. He is a 1st down machine. This is a good addition to the Denver offense.

Oakland Raiders

Draft Picks – 10th, 41st and 75th

Team Needs – CB, LB, DT, OT

1st Round – Denzel Ward (5’10, 185) CB Ohio State
Let’s keep it real, the Raiders secondary was flat out HORRIBLE last year. They have purged it quite a bit and added some free agents but still need another long-term solution. Enter Ward. When the top Corner in the draft falls, he is too good to pass on. He is a bit under-sized, but he plays like a Pitbull and is insanely fast. This is just what the doctor ordered.

2nd Round – Lorenzo Carter (6’5”, 250) OLB/DE Georgia
The Raiders have moved Bruce Irvin from Strong-side Linebacker to Defensive End leaving a big hole at the second level. Tight ends have had career days against the Raiders defense. Enter Carter. He has the ability to rush the passer but the speed and skill-set to drop into coverage (4.46 40 time). He is a very instinctive and has at time covered receivers in the slot. This guy is versatile and a perfect fit for the Raiders new attacking defense.

3rd Round – PJ Hall (6’1”, 310) DT Sam Houston State
For the better part of a half decade, the Raiders continue to search for an interior playmaker. The disruptive force in the middle continues to elude them. Welcome Mr. Hall. When drafting a small school prospect you look for him to flat out crush his competition. Well PJ did just that. In four years he posted 289 tackles, 36.5 sacks, 86.5 TFL, 29 PBU, 14 blocked kicks and 9 forced fumbles. He is strong as an ox and a motor that never stops. He is Geno Atkins 2.0 and just what Guenther needs for his defense.

Los Angeles Chargers

Draft Picks – 17th, 48th and 84th

Team Needs – DT, ILB, OT, QB

1st Round – DaRon Payne (6’2”, 311) DT Alabama
The Chargers were second to last against the run last year. DT Brandon Mebane is 33 years old. Time for some youth to help fix this problem. Say hello to Major Payne. That is what teams call this monster when they attempt to run against him. This guy will not only be a starter from day one but will rack up big tackles and keep the linebackers behind him clean.

2nd Round – Micah Kiser (6’0”, 240) ILB Virginia
Mostly due to injuries, Los Angeles used a four-man rotation at inside linebacker a season ago. Perryman is the only one that will return as a starter. Kiser is a flat out tackling machine and will be a beast against the run. This guy has fantastic instincts and will be a huge upgrade for the Chargers.

3rd Round – Chukwuma Okorafor (6’6”, 320) OT Western Michigan
While the Chargers offensive line certainly will get a boost from the free agent addition of center Mike Pouncey and the healthy return of 2017 second-round pick Forrest Lamp, the right tackle spot is in line for an upgrade. Enter Okorafor. This guy is very athletic and a great pass blocker. He will help keep River clear and more importantly, healthy.

Kansas City Chiefs

Draft Picks – 54th, 78th and 86th

Team Needs – CB, OG, ILB, OLB

2nd Round – Donte Jackson (5’10”, 180) CB LSU
A complete overhaul of the cornerback position is underway as the Chiefs traded away Marcus Peters but signed David Amerson and acquired Kendall Fuller. They need some speed at the position and draft Jackson. He is not big, but he is crazy fast and plays with a chip on his shoulder.

3rd Round – Arden Key (6’5”, 240) OLB LSU
What was once a strength the outside linebacker position is a big question mark heading into 2018 as Tamba Hali was released and Dee Ford coming off of back surgery. Enter Key. He has 1st round talent as a pass rusher but also has off-field issues that will drop him in the draft, to the Chiefs delight. This is a steal in the 3rd round.

3rd Round – Braden Smith (6’6”, 315) OG Auburn
Laurent Duvernay-Tardif has been a revelation for the Chiefs as he has developed into one of the 15 best guards according to Pro Football Focus. With Zach Fulton leaving in free agency and Parker Ehinger being inactive all season the Chiefs could really look to shore up their weak spot along the line. Hello Mr. Smith. This guy is just nasty at both pass and run blocking. Another steal for the Chiefs.

When the salary cap era of the NFL began in 1993, many changes came to the league other than just the eponym of this era. One of those changes was the introduction of unrestricted free agency. Another was to reduce the number of rounds in the draft from twelve to seven. However, while there have been officially seven rounds ever since, in truth the total number of draft picks equate to eight rounds. This is due to advent of compensatory draft picks, a entire round’s worth of picks that are distributed among the ends of rounds 3 through 7 that are awarded to teams that lose certain Unrestricted Free Agents (known as Compensatory Free Agents) to other teams.

The formula used to award compensatory draft picks, developed by the NFL Management Council, has never been publicly revealed. However, in the years since 1994 outside observers have been able to determine much of how the formula works, and have created projections in an effort to demystify how compensatory picks work, a process that has confused many an NFL fan. Since 2017, the NFL has allowed Compensatory Picks to be traded like any other pick.

This article looks at the picks awarded to teams in the AFC West. Let’s get started.
Kansas City Chiefs – 6th Round (209 Overall)
Los Angeles Chargers – 7th Round (251 Overall)
Denver Broncos – 3rd Round (99 Overall)
Oakland Raiders – 6th Round (210, 212, 216 and 217 Overall)

Looking at the awarded picks, the Broncos and Raiders won the west. The Broncos received a pick in the top 100. They need a quarterback and already have the number 5 overall pick. With this additional pick, they can package picks and move up if they really like one of the quarterbacks coming out. They could also stay where they are, sign on of the top name free agent quarterbacks and use this pick to get a top offensive lineman.

The Raiders have 4 picks all at the end of the 6th round. Jon Gruden will more than likely want to move up in the draft and get 1 or 2 blue chip players for his horrible defense (minus Mack). I could see him packaging these picks to move up in the draft in either the 2nd or 3rd round to get and extra defensive stud.

The Chiefs have been busy this off season. They traded their starting quarterback and their number 1 cornerback. They picked up a 3rd round pick and CB Kendall Fuller for QB Alex Smith. The terms of the Peters trade have not been released yet but it can be assumed that it is going to be a premium pick or picks. Having an extra pick never hurts.

The Chargers are a better team than most want to acknowledge. Having an extra pick, even a low one, does not bode well for the rest of the AFC West. If this team can stay healthy and fill a few holes, I believe they are a serious contender not only in the division but for the conference.

I think will see the AFC West be very busy during the draft and in free agency. Stand by for what I believe will be a wild ride for the entire division.