Muddled State

JFC, how the fuck are we in week 12 already? The last of the bye weeks, the final 1/3 of the season is upon us and things are getting interesting. Especially in the AFCW with a close race for the division title taking shape. The Chiefs and Chargers are on a bye this week, here’s what’s in store for the Raiders and Broncos…

Broncos at Bills:

You know how you can tell a well coached team from a poorly coached team? It’s not all about the W/L record, but how they play every week. Effort. The Broncos aren’t giving up. They got out to a big lead on Sunday vs. a very good Vikings team, but ultimately talent prevailed and they lost a close one. Kudos to Fangio tho for keeping them in games they probably should be losing by more than one possession. I think the Broncos can be optimistic about their future with him as a HC.

Sunday at Buffalo will be another tough test. The fans are batshit crazy, and it’s cold AF. Fortunately for Denver, I think Buffalo is vastly overrated. They’ve won 7 games vs. teams who have a combined winning % of .282. Not one of them with a winning record. Offensively, Josh Allen still isn’t a good QB. He can be dangerous with his legs, but still errant throwing the ball and has a knack for fumbling. That and a mediocre run game, advantage Denver defense. On the other side of the ball, Buffalo is good defensively and will make it equally as hard on Denver’s offense. This has the makings of a 13-10 type game that’s won or lost on a last second FG.

My predicktion: Broncos 12, Bills 10

Fantasy Player of the Game: Not a lot to like here. White on Sutton, Harris on John Brown. Both D’s solid vs. the run… Impossible to bench those guys at this point in the season unless you’re in some stupid 8 man league in which case you need to step your fucking game up. I do like both defenses if you’re streaming.

Raiders at Jets:

Show me someone who predicted before the season that the Raiders would be in a battle with the Chiefs for the division title this late in the season, and show you show a fucking liar. But here they are, the Raiders, at 6-4 with an opportunity to get to 7-4 and be neck and neck with the Chiefs heading into their game next week at Arrowhead. However, let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Nothing comes easy in the NFL, especially getting a W on the road in the early time slot.

Despite the Jets record, I’m looking at this like it’s a pretty evenly matched game. Statistically on defense, both teams are damn near identical across the board. The Jets do a good job stopping the run, and have one of the league’s best defenders in Jamal Adams – who will for sure be shadowing Darren Waller on every passing down. The key for the Raiders offensively will be the OL, I know, no shit sherlock. However, according to the holy grail of statistical analysis – PFF, the Raiders OL has a significant advantage here. Keep Carr clean and the rest, including the run game, should take care of itself. Defensively, have to get pressure on Darnold. He’ll crumble under any sort of pressure, and the Raiders can get to him. The Jets have given up the 3^rd most sacks this season to opposing defenses and the Raiders pass rush is on fire with 10 sacks in their last two games. This is a game the Raiders should win, but will they…

My predicktion: Raiders 27, Jets 20

Fantasy Player of the Game: You’re playing both starting RB’s no matter what, I don’t like Waller’s matchup with Adams. So take a look at the Jets starting TE, Ryan Griffin. Raiders struggle vs. TE’s and Griffin’s last 3 starts (not including the game Herndon started) he has 15 recs, 225 yards, and 3 TD’s. You’re welcome.

The Chiefs and Chargers are on a bye this week

Yours truly,

Whori

What a wild week, week 10 was. Another game winning drive for Derek Carr, who has the most game winning drives since entering the league in 2014. We had Philip “Givers” making an appearance. And the Chiefs getting ran through like a San Francisco homeless hooker. But hey, we’re not here to prosecute ones “quality of life”, so let’s get to some football.

Broncos at Vikings:

The Broncos, fresh off a bye week, travel into the Mall of America to take on the 7-3 Vikings. I wonder if Dude will be at the game? Actually, I don’t. Anyway, as we all know by now, the Vikings are good. I believe I saw a stat that has them as a top 5 offense over the last 5 weeks, while the Broncos have been able to maintain one of the league’s better defenses.

Can this Brandon Allen guy do it again? He wasn’t asked to do much with only 20 attempts vs the Browns, but he made the most of them with 190 yards and 2 TD’s. Unfortunately for Allen, the Vikings defense poses a much greater threat as they’ll take away the run game and force the inexperienced QB to beat them. And I don’t see that going well for Denver.

My predicktion: Vikings 27, Broncos 13

Fantasy player of the game: I’ve said his name here before, and I’ll say it again, Alexander Mattison. He’s getting a decent workload for a b/u RB and could see some garbage time work this week. With some fantasy relevant teams on a bye, plug him in if you need a body at RB.

Bengals at Raiders:

The last of their 3 game homestand, the Raiders look to keep the momentum rolling against the league’s worst team… the 0-9 Bengals. Let’s hope the team comes out with just as much fire as they did on TNF vs. the Chargers because a well decided victory is exactly what the team, moreso the fans, need at this point in the season.

The Bengals are pretty much the worst at everything. Offensively, they’ve given up by benching Dalton for Ryan Finley. Defensively, they give up the most yards/game, most notably on the ground with 173/game. Well above the next worst team. The Raiders need to take advantage of that and should use Jacobs and Washington in heavy doses. Pound the rock effectively and come away with a comfortable victory. However, I’ve been a fan long enough to know not to put any amount of failure past the Raiders. So we’ll see.

My predicktion: Raiders 32, Bengals 17

Fantasy player of the game: Jacobs is a no brainer. He should dominate this matchup, but I think Tyrell Williams gets back on track too with a TD.

Chiefs at Chargers in Mexico City on MNF:

The marquee game of week 11 in the AFCW. The Chargers, trying to keep their season alive, and the Chiefs, 1-3 in Mahomes’ last 4 starts, head into the shithole otherwise known as Mexico City for Monday Night Football.

This is a good matchup. Quietly, the Chargers defense has been playing solid football since the return of Melvin Ingram. Looking at those last 3 games, they’re holding opposing offenses to fewer than 20 points (Rivers cost the defense 10 pts vs. the Raiders). And on the other side of the ball, we’re just starting to see the other Melvin – Gordon – get his legs back and it couldn’t come at a better time than against a soft Chiefs defense. Run, Melvin, run.

For the Chiefs, it starts with Mahomes. He needs to be the mobile Mahomes of old as Bosa and Ingram will be on his doorstep with every drop back. Will the knee hold up? Defensively, Frank Clark has to be licking his chops right now after watching what Clelin Ferrell was able to do to that Chargers OL, but none of that will matter if they can’t stop the run. Although that’s if the Chargers aren’t dumb enough to abandon the run again like they did last week. This one will be close.

My predicktion: Chiefs 24, Chargers 20

Fantasy player of the game: Melvin Gordon is a top 5 RB play this week, and keep an eye on the KC backfield. If they hold McCoy out again, fire up Damien Williams.

Yours truly,

Whori

Heading into week 9, let’s just call a spade a spade. The AFCW is not a good division right now. We’ve been dominated by the NFCN (3-6), and the AFCS (3-7) We suck… Welp, now that that’s out of the way, let’s take a look at this coming week.

Vikings at Chiefs:

The Vikings head into Methville, USA at 6-2 and 2^nd in the NFCN. They’re a good football team with some firepower offensively: Cook, Diggs, and Thielen. Can the Chiefs defense slow them down? I hope not. Will we see the return of Patrick Mahomes this week? It’s been 2 weeks since his knee injury, and reports out of KC last week said he looked good in his limited practice time. So we’re going to assume he plays.

Looking at this matchup, you have the league’s leading rusher in Dalvin Cook vs. the league’s 3^rd worst run defense. I wonder what the Vikings will try to do? Getting Chris Jones back this week could be a huge boost in containing Cook for KC, but they’ll probably be without Frank Clark again. Offensively for the Chiefs, it’s obvious, they go as Mahomes goes. They still can’t run the ball for shit, so in order to win this game, not only will they need Mahomes back, but need him at close to 100%. And I’m not sure we’re there yet. He struggled with that ankle injury earlier this year, so I can’t imagine he’s back to his MVP caliber self 2 weeks removed from his knee cap being on the side of his leg.

My predicktion: Vikings 27, Chiefs 24

Fantasy Player of the Game: All the obvious plays here, including Cousins, but if you’re in need of a deep bye week fill in at RB, Alexander Mattison could have a decent workload behind Cook as the Vikings look to pound the ball.

Lions at Raiders:

Tough loss last week for the Raiders. Not only did they have the lead for the majority of the game, but losing to the Texans puts them in a big hole for a possible WC spot. But here they are at a respectable 3-4 having just finished the most brutal road schedule the NFL has ever seen, and finally back at home for a 3-game stand starting with Axel Foley’s Detroit Lions. The Lions are a pretty good team. Like the Raiders, they sit at 3-4, so we’re looking at a fairly even matchup here.

The challenge for the Raiders will be stopping Stafford and his trio of WR’s: Golladay, Jones Jr., and Amendola. Fortunately for the Raiders, Stafford can’t beat them with his legs like Watson did after O’Brien realized all he had to do was roll him out to his right and the Raiders were too fucking stupid to adjust. Anyway, offensively for the Raiders they should be able to attack one of the league’s worst defenses. Detroit is one of 2 teams who give up more passing yards than Oakland and are one of the worst against the run as well. I’m thinking a good ol’ fashioned shoot out here.

My predicktion: Raiders 31, Lions 27

Fantasy Player of the Game: Both QB’s. Carr and Stafford have favorable matchups vs. 2 of the leagues worst at defending the pass. Amendola a solid PPR play as we saw the Raiders inability to cover the middle of the field vs. the Texans.

Browns at Broncos:

The tanks keep rolling along in Denver with Joe Flacco’s season now all but over with an apparent neck injury. He was a below average QB anyway. So in comes Brandon Allen (who tha fook is that guy?) to keep the seat warm, or cold, for however long it takes Drew Lock to get ready to play. This is the 6^th starting QB since PFM retired, Lock will be the 7^th. It’s safe to say that Elway has no fucking clue what he’s doing after having a SB winning team fall in his lap. His drafts are terrible, coaching decisions haven’t been any better, but can/will the Bowlen’s (or whoever is making that decision) fire every Bronco fans hero?

Oddly enough, the Browns have been so bad, that the Broncos actually have a good chance of winning this game. And here’s why: Chris Harris. He’s shed the slot CB label and become the best CB in the league. Period. He shuts down your FFB teams WR1. Every. Fucking. Week. Also, the Broncos are still pretty good running the ball, which is every no name starting QB’s best friend. The last thing Denver wants to do here is drop back to pass more than 15 times and not all because of Allen at QB, but because of Bolles vs. Myles Garrett. Yikes. As much as I want to predickt a Broncos win, I just have no fucking clue what we’re going to get from Brandon Allen and why the Browns don’t just stack the box on every down and force whoever the fuck that guy is to beat them.

My predicktion:  Browns 14, Broncos 13

Fantasy Player of the Game: Chubb is an obvious play, but if you’re streaming defenses like me, and you should be because only an idiot drafts a D/ST before the 2^nd to last round, I like both here in what should be a low scoring game.

Chargers at Packers in LA:

Once again, this might as well be an away game for the Chargers. They’ll be “home”, but that place will be packed with dumbass Mid Westerners wearing a fake block of cheese on their head. For all the shit Raiders fans get for their costumes, it doesn’t get any fucking dumber than that. Minus that Broncos fan dressed as a pom pom of course. Anyway, this will be the last of the Packers AFCW schedule, and so far they’ve dominated with a 3-0 record. Aaron Rodgers is back in the MVP discussion and has his Packers leading the NFCN once again. The Chargers on the other hand, did just beat the Bears in Chicago, but it took a 42-yard FG miss at the buzzer. Not impressed.

So how do the Chargers go about beating a 7-1 team? For one, they’re going to have to be successful running the ball, which is where the Packers defense is most vulnerable. The problem here is, the Chargers can’t run the ball. Behind one of the league’s worst OL’s, they average 5^th lowest rushing yards/game and a paltry 3.5 ypc. That’s not good. And since his triumphant return, Melvin Gordon averages 2.5 ypc. That’s even worse. While Rivers is known for doing just enough to keep the Chargers competitive in just about every game, I think they’re just simply over-matched in this one.

My predicktion: Packers 27, Chargers 17

Fantasy Player of the Game: Rodgers has been spreading the wealth without Adams making picking one of his WR’s a nightmare, but I do like his RB’s here. Jones a must play, and Williams has been sneaky good too. 4 TD’s in their last 3 games, and averaging over 4 targets/game in that span as well. Giddy up.

Good luck, dickheads.

Love,

Whori

Rest in Peace Willie

What a fucking week, week 7 was for the AFCW. Patty Mahomes had to have his knee popped back in place, the Broncos were outscored 30 to -1 after their opening possession, Rodgers is still throwing TD’s on the Raiders, and the Chargers Charger’d their way to another L. Let’s all just pretend that didn’t happen, shall we? Moving on to week 8 for what looks like another good one…

Chargers at Bears:

The schedule doesn’t lighten up any for the Chargers this week as they head into Chicago to face the monsters of the midway. Granted, the Bears offense is struggling as expected and Teddy Bridgewater just hung, wait can we say hung? Teddy Bridgewater just put 36 on that vaunted defense without Alvin Kamara – that’s better. So they aren’t looking too great either. It’s now or never for the Chargers.

Without a single starting caliber offensive lineman on the roster, the Chargers are going to struggle. Khalil Mack is going to feast, and unlike last week, the Chicago defense is going to live up to its hype. Defensively, the Chargers are going to have to force Trubisky to beat them. Stop the run, and make that sorry son of a bitch air it out. That’s the only way to win this one.

My predicktion: Bears 20, Chargers 17

Fantasy player of the game: He hasn’t been great, but Nagy has pointed out the importance of getting rookie Montgomery going. I think he does and finishes over 100 total yards and a TD.

Broncos at Colts:

WTF is that? Is that an Earthquake in Denver? No, it’s the sound of tanks rolling in. These next 5 days are going to tell us a lot about the future of the Denver Broncos. Is Elway going to steamroll his roster for picks, or try to hang on to guys like CHJr even though they are surely to leave in FA? Hey, maybe Denver fans will get lucky and the tanks will roll over Elway too…

The Broncos are the last of the AFCW teams to face the Colts, so it’s been well documented already that they’re a solid team, who now leads the AFCS and are healthier than they’ve been in weeks. Don’t really see any advantageous matchups for the Broncos here, but maybe they’ll care enough to play for the shreds of dignity that Elway has yet to take. But I don’t think so.

My predicktion: Colts 27, Broncos 10

Fantasy player of the game: Keep riding the Sutton train. He’s now in the borderline WR1 discussion without sharing the targets with Sanders.

Raiders at Texans:

Will the real Raiders please stand up? No, not you assholes from last week, you can sit the fuck back down. We’ve seen the Texans in here before. They’re 2-0 so far in the season series vs. the AFCW. So we’re not in for any surprises. They did just lose Will Fuller, which is good news for a secondary who couldn’t cover me. Random tidbit for the game, Raiders traded its starting CB to the Texans in exchange for a 3^rd round pick. Now Gruden gets his chance to pick on Conley’s sorry ass for once.

HOU’s OL isn’t nearly as good as GB’s, so the Raiders should be able to get some sort of pressure on Watson this week. That will be key as he and Hopkins will dismantle any secondary, let alone the Raiders, with time to throw. Offensively, the Raiders could be getting Tyrell Williams back to attack a defense that’s given up the 4^th most yards to QB’s this season. If Carr can cut out the RZ TO’s, the Raiders will be in this one.

My predicktion: Texans 27, Raiders 24

Fantasy player of the game: Flip a coin between Kenny Stills and Keke Coutee. One of them, or both, will run right past the Raiders secondary for a long TD.

Packers at Chiefs:

It’s hard for me to believe the Chiefs are really that fucking stupid. They can’t possibly start their franchise QB/savior 10 days post dislocating his kneecap. That’s insane. The rest of us can only hope that they’d be dumb enough to mortgage their future for a regular season game. We obviously don’t wish injury on anyone other than the child beater, but stupidity by Andy Reid and the Chiefs organization is always welcome.

Anyway, the Packers are getting the Chiefs at the exact right time. I really don’t think Mahomes will play, and the Packers should see the return of Davante Adams to give Rodgers his full arsenal of weaponry. The Chiefs on the other hand will most likely be playing with Matt Moore at QB, and he won’t have any semblance of a running game to support him as the Chiefs are in the bottom quarter of the league in rushing. Minus Mahomes, this should be an easy win for the 6-1 Packers.

My predicktion: Packers 31, Chiefs 20

Fantasy player of the game: Aaron Jones. KC gives up the 4^th most yards to RB’s. He’s a must start.

*I hate predickting an 0-4 week with the AFCW, but here we are.

Yours truly,

Whori

What an exciting week, week 5 was. Broncos got their first win of the season vs. the Chargers – we all saw that coming. The Chiefs looked pedestrian for the second week in a row in a loss at home to the Colts. And the Raiders shocked the world by punching bitch ass Khalil Mack and the Bears D in the dick and getting their 3^rd win of the season to move to 3-2. Moving on to week 6 in what looks like some good matchups all around for the AFCW.

Texans at Chiefs:

Coming off a tough loss at home vs. the Colts, the Chiefs will look to rebound against a good Texans team looking for its 4^th win of the season and leading the AFCS division. Houston excels at getting pressure on the opposing QB, and offensively, Deshaun Watson leads a vertical passing attack which could spell trouble for KC’s mediocre secondary.

Patrick Mahomes is going to have to carry this team on his back in order to win this game. Watkins and Fisher look questionable for the game at best, and child beater still hasn’t been cleared. Defensively they’ll be w/out Chris Jones for a few weeks as well. Fat Andy needs to get his 8th worse run game going to keep the Texans defense honest. I wish I would’ve written this before taking Chiefs -5 because I just don’t see it paying out. This will be close and could go either way.

My predicktion: Chiefs 30, Texans 27

Fantasy player of the game: Rule #1 in FFB, don’t chase last week’s points. However, Will Fuller has another very nice matchup this week. I’m going to double down on another solid performance.

Titans at Broncos:

The Broncos got their first win of the season last week in LA, but come home for a tough week 6 matchup vs. the Titans. The Titans are sitting at 2-3 and currently last in the AFCS, but they’re better than their record would indicate. They’re a well-balanced team who aren’t really great at anything, but solid in all facets of the game.

The key for the Broncos to come away with a W is going to be getting the ball out of Henry’s hands and forcing Mariota to be the shitty QB he is. Unfortunately for Denver, this plays right into their weakness defensively, struggling against tough, physical runners through the first 5 games of the season. Offensively, the Broncos OL will struggle vs. a stout TEN front and will need to have success throwing the ball, and should look to Sutton early and often. Vegas has this as the lowest point total of the week for a reason. Expect a low scoring game, that’s probably decided by another last second FG.

My predicktion: Titans 19, Broncos 17

Fantasy player of the game: Henry is obviously a must start, so I’m going with the hot hand of Courtland Sutton. He’s taken over as Flacco’s favorite WR and has a positive matchup with Malcolm Butler.

Chargers at Steelers in LA:

Let’s face it, this might as well be a road game for the Chargers. Steelers fans travel better than any team in the league, and the Chargers have no fans to begin with. Terrible towels everywhere. Anyway, the Chargers are reeling. They’re banged up as always, losing Pouncey for the season this week, and lack the depth to stay afloat. Speaking of, maybe if TT didn’t always go for the “sexy” pick in the draft and actually filled positions of need, these injuries wouldn’t take such a toll.

The Chargers need a win here to keep their season alive, and fortunately for LAC, the Steelers look like they may be starting a 3^rd string QB. That might be their only saving grace in this one. Pittsburgh is still solid enough defensively to keep Rivers in check, but not sure what to expect from the offense other than a healthy dose of James Conner with Jaylen Samuels sidelined now for a month. Can the Chargers get Melvin Gordon going? They’ll need a big game from him to get a win. And take the under.

My predicktion: Chargers 17, Steelers 14 *If Rudolph starts, this is an L for the Chargers*

Fantasy player of the game: Minus the obvious KA and James Conner, I’m staying away. But if you’re desperate for a TE play, Vance McDonald could have a decent game. Backup QB’s usually tend to lean on TE’s in the passing game.

Raiders on a bye:

Traded a 2021 5^th for Zay Jones and get some much needed WR depth.

Yours truly,

Whori